Bayesian estimation of herd-level prevalence and risk factors associated with BoHV-1 infection in cattle herds in the State of Paraíba, Brazil

Leíse Gomes Fernandes; Matthew James Denwood; Carolina de Sousa Américo Batista Santos; Clebert José Alves; Edviges Maristela Pituco; Adriana Hellmeister de Campos Nogueira Romaldini; Eliana De Stefano; Søren Saxmose Nielsen; Sérgio Santos de Azevedo

doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2019.104705

Bayesian estimation of herd-level prevalence and risk factors associated with BoHV-1 infection in cattle herds in the State of Paraíba, Brazil

Leíse Gomes Fernandes, Matthew James Denwood, Carolina de Sousa Américo Batista Santos, Clebert José Alves, Edviges Maristela Pituco, Adriana Hellmeister de Campos Nogueira Romaldini, Eliana De Stefano, Søren Saxmose Nielsen, Sérgio Santos de Azevedo

Abstract

A cross-sectional study was carried out to estimate the animal- and herd-level prevalence of bovine herpesvirus 1 (BoHV-1) infection in cattle in the State of Paraíba, and to identify risk factors associated with herd-level infection. The state was divided into three sampling strata, and for each stratum, the prevalence of herds infected with BoHV-1 was estimated through a two-stage sampling survey carried out from September 2012 to January 2013. In total, 2443 animals were sampled from 478 herds. A virus-neutralization test was used for BoHV-1 antibody detection. A Bayesian latent-class model was used to describe the data, taking into account imperfect diagnostic test characteristics and the non-independence of test results from animals within the same herd, and using a dynamic within-model risk factor selection method based on indicator variable selection. The adjusted herd-level prevalence was estimated to be 84% (95% CI: 80-88%) for the State of Paraíba, and the animal-level prevalence was estimated to be 73% (95% CI: 66-84%). Only five of the available risk factors were used by the model, with the three most influential being disposal of aborted foetuses (3.78, 95% CI: 1.11-13.85), sharing resources with other farms (3.0, 95% CI: 1.1-8,6), and a herd size of > 23 animals (2.5, 95% CI: 1.1-6.0). Our findings suggest that the animal- and herd-level seroprevalence of BoHV-1 infection in the State of Paraíba is high. While some risk factors such as herd size and sharing resources were identified as risk factors for BoHV-1 infection, these risk factors are initially likely to be of only minor relevance in a control programme due to the extremely high prevalence of infected farms. However, the results are relevant to the risk of reintroduction of disease on farms that have previously eradicated the disease.

Original language	English
Article number	104705
Journal	Preventive Veterinary Medicine
Volume	169
Number of pages	7
ISSN	0167-5877
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2019.104705
Publication status	Published - 1 Aug 2019

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Bayesian estimation of herd-level prevalence and risk factors associated with BoHV-1 infection in cattle herds in the State of Paraíba, BrazilFinal published version, 634 KB

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Fernandes, L. G., Denwood, M. J., de Sousa Américo Batista Santos, C., Alves, C. J., Pituco, E. M., de Campos Nogueira Romaldini, A. H., De Stefano, E., Nielsen, S. S., & de Azevedo, S. S. (2019). Bayesian estimation of herd-level prevalence and risk factors associated with BoHV-1 infection in cattle herds in the State of Paraíba, Brazil. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 169, Article 104705. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2019.104705

Bayesian estimation of herd-level prevalence and risk factors associated with BoHV-1 infection in cattle herds in the State of Paraíba, Brazil. / Fernandes, Leíse Gomes; Denwood, Matthew James; de Sousa Américo Batista Santos, Carolina et al.
In: Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Vol. 169, 104705, 01.08.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Fernandes, LG, Denwood, MJ, de Sousa Américo Batista Santos, C, Alves, CJ, Pituco, EM, de Campos Nogueira Romaldini, AH, De Stefano, E, Nielsen, SS & de Azevedo, SS 2019, 'Bayesian estimation of herd-level prevalence and risk factors associated with BoHV-1 infection in cattle herds in the State of Paraíba, Brazil', Preventive Veterinary Medicine, vol. 169, 104705. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2019.104705

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title = "Bayesian estimation of herd-level prevalence and risk factors associated with BoHV-1 infection in cattle herds in the State of Para{\'i}ba, Brazil",

abstract = "A cross-sectional study was carried out to estimate the animal- and herd-level prevalence of bovine herpesvirus 1 (BoHV-1) infection in cattle in the State of Para{\'i}ba, and to identify risk factors associated with herd-level infection. The state was divided into three sampling strata, and for each stratum, the prevalence of herds infected with BoHV-1 was estimated through a two-stage sampling survey carried out from September 2012 to January 2013. In total, 2443 animals were sampled from 478 herds. A virus-neutralization test was used for BoHV-1 antibody detection. A Bayesian latent-class model was used to describe the data, taking into account imperfect diagnostic test characteristics and the non-independence of test results from animals within the same herd, and using a dynamic within-model risk factor selection method based on indicator variable selection. The adjusted herd-level prevalence was estimated to be 84% (95% CI: 80-88%) for the State of Para{\'i}ba, and the animal-level prevalence was estimated to be 73% (95% CI: 66-84%). Only five of the available risk factors were used by the model, with the three most influential being disposal of aborted foetuses (3.78, 95% CI: 1.11-13.85), sharing resources with other farms (3.0, 95% CI: 1.1-8,6), and a herd size of > 23 animals (2.5, 95% CI: 1.1-6.0). Our findings suggest that the animal- and herd-level seroprevalence of BoHV-1 infection in the State of Para{\'i}ba is high. While some risk factors such as herd size and sharing resources were identified as risk factors for BoHV-1 infection, these risk factors are initially likely to be of only minor relevance in a control programme due to the extremely high prevalence of infected farms. However, the results are relevant to the risk of reintroduction of disease on farms that have previously eradicated the disease.",

author = "Fernandes, {Le{\'i}se Gomes} and Denwood, {Matthew James} and {de Sousa Am{\'e}rico Batista Santos}, Carolina and Alves, {Clebert Jos{\'e}} and Pituco, {Edviges Maristela} and {de Campos Nogueira Romaldini}, {Adriana Hellmeister} and {De Stefano}, Eliana and Nielsen, {S{\o}ren Saxmose} and {de Azevedo}, {S{\'e}rgio Santos}",

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doi = "10.1016/j.prevetmed.2019.104705",

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T1 - Bayesian estimation of herd-level prevalence and risk factors associated with BoHV-1 infection in cattle herds in the State of Paraíba, Brazil

AU - Fernandes, Leíse Gomes

AU - Denwood, Matthew James

AU - de Sousa Américo Batista Santos, Carolina

AU - Alves, Clebert José

AU - Pituco, Edviges Maristela

AU - de Campos Nogueira Romaldini, Adriana Hellmeister

AU - De Stefano, Eliana

AU - Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

AU - de Azevedo, Sérgio Santos

PY - 2019/8/1

Y1 - 2019/8/1

N2 - A cross-sectional study was carried out to estimate the animal- and herd-level prevalence of bovine herpesvirus 1 (BoHV-1) infection in cattle in the State of Paraíba, and to identify risk factors associated with herd-level infection. The state was divided into three sampling strata, and for each stratum, the prevalence of herds infected with BoHV-1 was estimated through a two-stage sampling survey carried out from September 2012 to January 2013. In total, 2443 animals were sampled from 478 herds. A virus-neutralization test was used for BoHV-1 antibody detection. A Bayesian latent-class model was used to describe the data, taking into account imperfect diagnostic test characteristics and the non-independence of test results from animals within the same herd, and using a dynamic within-model risk factor selection method based on indicator variable selection. The adjusted herd-level prevalence was estimated to be 84% (95% CI: 80-88%) for the State of Paraíba, and the animal-level prevalence was estimated to be 73% (95% CI: 66-84%). Only five of the available risk factors were used by the model, with the three most influential being disposal of aborted foetuses (3.78, 95% CI: 1.11-13.85), sharing resources with other farms (3.0, 95% CI: 1.1-8,6), and a herd size of > 23 animals (2.5, 95% CI: 1.1-6.0). Our findings suggest that the animal- and herd-level seroprevalence of BoHV-1 infection in the State of Paraíba is high. While some risk factors such as herd size and sharing resources were identified as risk factors for BoHV-1 infection, these risk factors are initially likely to be of only minor relevance in a control programme due to the extremely high prevalence of infected farms. However, the results are relevant to the risk of reintroduction of disease on farms that have previously eradicated the disease.

AB - A cross-sectional study was carried out to estimate the animal- and herd-level prevalence of bovine herpesvirus 1 (BoHV-1) infection in cattle in the State of Paraíba, and to identify risk factors associated with herd-level infection. The state was divided into three sampling strata, and for each stratum, the prevalence of herds infected with BoHV-1 was estimated through a two-stage sampling survey carried out from September 2012 to January 2013. In total, 2443 animals were sampled from 478 herds. A virus-neutralization test was used for BoHV-1 antibody detection. A Bayesian latent-class model was used to describe the data, taking into account imperfect diagnostic test characteristics and the non-independence of test results from animals within the same herd, and using a dynamic within-model risk factor selection method based on indicator variable selection. The adjusted herd-level prevalence was estimated to be 84% (95% CI: 80-88%) for the State of Paraíba, and the animal-level prevalence was estimated to be 73% (95% CI: 66-84%). Only five of the available risk factors were used by the model, with the three most influential being disposal of aborted foetuses (3.78, 95% CI: 1.11-13.85), sharing resources with other farms (3.0, 95% CI: 1.1-8,6), and a herd size of > 23 animals (2.5, 95% CI: 1.1-6.0). Our findings suggest that the animal- and herd-level seroprevalence of BoHV-1 infection in the State of Paraíba is high. While some risk factors such as herd size and sharing resources were identified as risk factors for BoHV-1 infection, these risk factors are initially likely to be of only minor relevance in a control programme due to the extremely high prevalence of infected farms. However, the results are relevant to the risk of reintroduction of disease on farms that have previously eradicated the disease.

U2 - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2019.104705

DO - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2019.104705

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 31311643

SN - 0167-5877

VL - 169

JO - Preventive Veterinary Medicine

JF - Preventive Veterinary Medicine

M1 - 104705

ER -

Bayesian estimation of herd-level prevalence and risk factors associated with BoHV-1 infection in cattle herds in the State of Paraíba, Brazil

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