Areas of climate stability of species ranges in the Brazilian Cerrado: disentangling uncertainties through time

Levi Carina Terribile; Matheus Souza Lima-Ribeiro; Miguel Bastos Araujo; Nair Bizao; Rosane Garcia Collevatti; Ricardo Dobrovolski; Amanda Assis Franco; Francois Guilhaumon; Jacqueline de Souza Lima; Devanir Mitsuyuki Murakami; Joao Carlos Nabout; Guilherme de Oliveira; Leciane Karita de Oliveira; Suelen Goncalves Rabelo; Thiago Fernando Rangel; Lorena Mendes Simon; Thannya Nascimento Soares; Mariana Pires de Campos Telles; Jose Alexandre Felizola Diniz-Filho

doi:10.4322/natcon.2012.025

Areas of climate stability of species ranges in the Brazilian Cerrado: disentangling uncertainties through time

Levi Carina Terribile, Matheus Souza Lima-Ribeiro, Miguel Bastos Araujo, Nair Bizao, Rosane Garcia Collevatti, Ricardo Dobrovolski, Amanda Assis Franco, Francois Guilhaumon, Jacqueline de Souza Lima, Devanir Mitsuyuki Murakami, Joao Carlos Nabout, Guilherme de Oliveira, Leciane Karita de Oliveira, Suelen Goncalves Rabelo, Thiago Fernando Rangel, Lorena Mendes Simon, Thannya Nascimento Soares, Mariana Pires de Campos Telles, Jose Alexandre Felizola Diniz-Filho

Ecology and Evolution

77 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Recognizing the location of climatically stable areas in the future is subjected to uncertainties from ecological niche models, climatic models, variation in species ranges responses, and from the climatic variation through time. Here, we proposed an approach based on hierarchical ANOVA to reduce uncertainties and to identify climatically stable areas, working with Cerrado tree species as a model organism. Ecological niche models were generated for 18 Cerrado tree species and their potential distributions were projected into past and future. Analyses of the sources of uncertainties in ensembles hindcasts/forecasts revealed that the time component was the most important source of variation, whereas the climatic models had the smallest effect. The species responses to climate changes do not showed marked differences within each time period. By comparing past and future predictions, a single continuous climatically stable area was identified, which should be considered as a potential improvement for spatial prioritization for conservation.

Original language	English
Journal	Natureza & Conservacao
Volume	10
Issue number	2
Pages (from-to)	152-159
Number of pages	8
ISSN	1679-0073
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.4322/natcon.2012.025
Publication status	Published - 2012

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10.4322/natcon.2012.025

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Terribile, L. C., Lima-Ribeiro, M. S., Bastos Araujo, M., Bizao, N., Collevatti, R. G., Dobrovolski, R., Franco, A. A., Guilhaumon, F., Lima, J. D. S., Murakami, D. M., Nabout, J. C., de Oliveira, G., de Oliveira, L. K., Rabelo, S. G., Rangel, T. F., Simon, L. M., Soares, T. N., de Campos Telles, M. P., & Felizola Diniz-Filho, J. A. (2012). Areas of climate stability of species ranges in the Brazilian Cerrado: disentangling uncertainties through time. Natureza & Conservacao, 10(2), 152-159. https://doi.org/10.4322/natcon.2012.025

Terribile, LC, Lima-Ribeiro, MS, Bastos Araujo, M, Bizao, N, Collevatti, RG, Dobrovolski, R, Franco, AA, Guilhaumon, F, Lima, JDS, Murakami, DM, Nabout, JC, de Oliveira, G, de Oliveira, LK, Rabelo, SG, Rangel, TF, Simon, LM, Soares, TN, de Campos Telles, MP & Felizola Diniz-Filho, JA 2012, 'Areas of climate stability of species ranges in the Brazilian Cerrado: disentangling uncertainties through time', Natureza & Conservacao, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 152-159. https://doi.org/10.4322/natcon.2012.025

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abstract = "Recognizing the location of climatically stable areas in the future is subjected to uncertainties from ecological niche models, climatic models, variation in species ranges responses, and from the climatic variation through time. Here, we proposed an approach based on hierarchical ANOVA to reduce uncertainties and to identify climatically stable areas, working with Cerrado tree species as a model organism. Ecological niche models were generated for 18 Cerrado tree species and their potential distributions were projected into past and future. Analyses of the sources of uncertainties in ensembles hindcasts/forecasts revealed that the time component was the most important source of variation, whereas the climatic models had the smallest effect. The species responses to climate changes do not showed marked differences within each time period. By comparing past and future predictions, a single continuous climatically stable area was identified, which should be considered as a potential improvement for spatial prioritization for conservation.",

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AU - Terribile, Levi Carina

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AU - Collevatti, Rosane Garcia

AU - Dobrovolski, Ricardo

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AU - de Oliveira, Leciane Karita

AU - Rabelo, Suelen Goncalves

AU - Rangel, Thiago Fernando

AU - Simon, Lorena Mendes

AU - Soares, Thannya Nascimento

AU - de Campos Telles, Mariana Pires

AU - Felizola Diniz-Filho, Jose Alexandre

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