Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850

TY - JOUR

T1 - Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850

AU - Jevrejeva, Svetlana

AU - Grinsted, Aslak

AU - Moore, John

N1 - Paper id:: 10.1029/2009GL040216

PY - 2009

Y1 - 2009

N2 - The rate of sea level rise and its causes are topics of active debate. Here we use a delayed response statistical model to attribute the past 1000 years of sea level variability to various natural (volcanic and solar radiative) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) forcings. We show that until 1800 the main drivers of sea level change are volcanic and solar radiative forcings. For the past 200 years sea level rise is mostly associated with anthropogenic factors. Only 4 ± 1.5 cm (25% of total sea level rise) during the 20th century is attributed to natural forcings, the remaining 14 ± 1.5 cm are due to a rapid increase in CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

AB - The rate of sea level rise and its causes are topics of active debate. Here we use a delayed response statistical model to attribute the past 1000 years of sea level variability to various natural (volcanic and solar radiative) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) forcings. We show that until 1800 the main drivers of sea level change are volcanic and solar radiative forcings. For the past 200 years sea level rise is mostly associated with anthropogenic factors. Only 4 ± 1.5 cm (25% of total sea level rise) during the 20th century is attributed to natural forcings, the remaining 14 ± 1.5 cm are due to a rapid increase in CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

U2 - 10.1029/2009GL040216

DO - 10.1029/2009GL040216

M3 - Journal article

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 36

SP - L20707

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

ER -