Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO2 in a Mediterranean environment

M. Ruiz-Ramos; Roberto Ferrise; A Rodríguez; I. J. Lorite; Marco Bindi; T. R. Carter; S Fronzek; T. Palosuo; N. Pirttioja; P. Baranowski; S. Buis; D. Cammarano; Y. Chen; Bertrand Dumont; F. Ewert; T. Gaiser; P. Hlavinka; H. Hoffmann; J. G. Höhn; F. Jurecka; K. C. Kersebaum; J. Krzyszczak; M. Lana; A. Mechiche-Alami; J. Minet; Federico Montesino Pouzols; C. Nendel; John Roy Porter; F. Ruget; M. A. Semenov; Z. Steinmetz; P. Stratonovitch; Iwan Supit; F. Tao; M. Trnka; Cynthia A. de Wit; Reimund P, Rötter

doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.009

Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO₂ in a Mediterranean environment

M. Ruiz-Ramos^*, Roberto Ferrise, A Rodríguez, I. J. Lorite, Marco Bindi, T. R. Carter, S Fronzek, T. Palosuo, N. Pirttioja, P. Baranowski, S. Buis, D. Cammarano, Y. Chen, Bertrand Dumont, F. Ewert, T. Gaiser, P. Hlavinka, H. Hoffmann, J. G. Höhn, F. JureckaK. C. Kersebaum, J. Krzyszczak, M. Lana, A. Mechiche-Alami, J. Minet, Federico Montesino Pouzols, C. Nendel, John Roy Porter, F. Ruget, M. A. Semenov, Z. Steinmetz, P. Stratonovitch, Iwan Supit, F. Tao, M. Trnka, Cynthia A. de Wit, Reimund P, Rötter

^*Corresponding author for this work

Section for Crop Sciences

48 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Adaptation of crops to climate change has to be addressed locally due to the variability of soil, climate and the specific socio-economic settings influencing farm management decisions. Adaptation of rainfed cropping systems in the Mediterranean is especially challenging due to the projected decline in precipitation in the coming decades, which will increase the risk of droughts. Methods that can help explore uncertainties in climate projections and crop modelling, such as impact response surfaces (IRSs) and ensemble modelling, can then be valuable for identifying effective adaptations. Here, an ensemble of 17 crop models was used to simulate a total of 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) at Lleida (NE Spain). To support the ensemble building, an ex post quality check of model simulations based on several criteria was performed. Those criteria were based on the "According to Our Current Knowledge" (AOCK) concept, which has been formalized here. Adaptations were based on changes in cultivars and management regarding phenology, vernalization, sowing date and irrigation. The effects of adaptation options under changed precipitation (P), temperature (T), [CO₂] and soil type were analysed by constructing response surfaces, which we termed, in accordance with their specific purpose, adaptation response surfaces (ARSs). These were created to assess the effect of adaptations through a range of plausible P, T and [CO₂] perturbations. The results indicated that impacts of altered climate were predominantly negative. No single adaptation was capable of overcoming the detrimental effect of the complex interactions imposed by the P, T and [CO₂] perturbations except for supplementary irrigation (sI), which reduced the potential impacts under most of the perturbations. Yet, a combination of adaptations for dealing with climate change demonstrated that effective adaptation is possible at Lleida. Combinations based on a cultivar without vernalization requirements showed good and wide adaptation potential. Few combined adaptation options performed well under rainfed conditions. However, a single sI was sufficient to develop a high adaptation potential, including options mainly based on spring wheat, current cycle duration and early sowing date. Depending on local environment (e.g. soil type), many of these adaptations can maintain current yield levels under moderate changes in T and P, and some also under strong changes. We conclude that ARSs can offer a useful tool for supporting planning of field level adaptation under conditions of high uncertainty.

Original language	English
Journal	Agricultural Systems
Volume	159
Pages (from-to)	260-274
Number of pages	15
ISSN	0308-521X
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.009
Publication status	Published - Jan 2018

Keywords

AOCK concept
Crop model ensemble
Mediterranean cropping system
Rainfed
Sensitivity analysis
Wheat adaptation

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.009

Cite this

Ruiz-Ramos, M., Ferrise, R., Rodríguez, A., Lorite, I. J., Bindi, M., Carter, T. R., Fronzek, S., Palosuo, T., Pirttioja, N., Baranowski, P., Buis, S., Cammarano, D., Chen, Y., Dumont, B., Ewert, F., Gaiser, T., Hlavinka, P., Hoffmann, H., Höhn, J. G., ... Rötter, R. P. (2018). Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO₂ in a Mediterranean environment. Agricultural Systems, 159, 260-274. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.009

Ruiz-Ramos, M, Ferrise, R, Rodríguez, A, Lorite, IJ, Bindi, M, Carter, TR, Fronzek, S, Palosuo, T, Pirttioja, N, Baranowski, P, Buis, S, Cammarano, D, Chen, Y, Dumont, B, Ewert, F, Gaiser, T, Hlavinka, P, Hoffmann, H, Höhn, JG, Jurecka, F, Kersebaum, KC, Krzyszczak, J, Lana, M, Mechiche-Alami, A, Minet, J, Montesino Pouzols, F, Nendel, C, Porter, JR, Ruget, F, Semenov, MA, Steinmetz, Z, Stratonovitch, P, Supit, I, Tao, F, Trnka, M, de Wit, CA & Rötter, RP 2018, 'Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO₂ in a Mediterranean environment', Agricultural Systems, vol. 159, pp. 260-274. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.009

@article{a77f182b2f034442976fffd9cee4f660,

title = "Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO2 in a Mediterranean environment",

abstract = "Adaptation of crops to climate change has to be addressed locally due to the variability of soil, climate and the specific socio-economic settings influencing farm management decisions. Adaptation of rainfed cropping systems in the Mediterranean is especially challenging due to the projected decline in precipitation in the coming decades, which will increase the risk of droughts. Methods that can help explore uncertainties in climate projections and crop modelling, such as impact response surfaces (IRSs) and ensemble modelling, can then be valuable for identifying effective adaptations. Here, an ensemble of 17 crop models was used to simulate a total of 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) at Lleida (NE Spain). To support the ensemble building, an ex post quality check of model simulations based on several criteria was performed. Those criteria were based on the {"}According to Our Current Knowledge{"} (AOCK) concept, which has been formalized here. Adaptations were based on changes in cultivars and management regarding phenology, vernalization, sowing date and irrigation. The effects of adaptation options under changed precipitation (P), temperature (T), [CO2] and soil type were analysed by constructing response surfaces, which we termed, in accordance with their specific purpose, adaptation response surfaces (ARSs). These were created to assess the effect of adaptations through a range of plausible P, T and [CO2] perturbations. The results indicated that impacts of altered climate were predominantly negative. No single adaptation was capable of overcoming the detrimental effect of the complex interactions imposed by the P, T and [CO2] perturbations except for supplementary irrigation (sI), which reduced the potential impacts under most of the perturbations. Yet, a combination of adaptations for dealing with climate change demonstrated that effective adaptation is possible at Lleida. Combinations based on a cultivar without vernalization requirements showed good and wide adaptation potential. Few combined adaptation options performed well under rainfed conditions. However, a single sI was sufficient to develop a high adaptation potential, including options mainly based on spring wheat, current cycle duration and early sowing date. Depending on local environment (e.g. soil type), many of these adaptations can maintain current yield levels under moderate changes in T and P, and some also under strong changes. We conclude that ARSs can offer a useful tool for supporting planning of field level adaptation under conditions of high uncertainty.",

keywords = "AOCK concept, Crop model ensemble, Mediterranean cropping system, Rainfed, Sensitivity analysis, Wheat adaptation",

author = "M. Ruiz-Ramos and Roberto Ferrise and A Rodr{\'i}guez and Lorite, {I. J.} and Marco Bindi and Carter, {T. R.} and S Fronzek and T. Palosuo and N. Pirttioja and P. Baranowski and S. Buis and D. Cammarano and Y. Chen and Bertrand Dumont and F. Ewert and T. Gaiser and P. Hlavinka and H. Hoffmann and H{\"o}hn, {J. G.} and F. Jurecka and Kersebaum, {K. C.} and J. Krzyszczak and M. Lana and A. Mechiche-Alami and J. Minet and {Montesino Pouzols}, Federico and C. Nendel and Porter, {John Roy} and F. Ruget and Semenov, {M. A.} and Z. Steinmetz and P. Stratonovitch and Iwan Supit and F. Tao and M. Trnka and {de Wit}, {Cynthia A.} and R{\"o}tter, {Reimund P,}",

year = "2018",

month = jan,

doi = "10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.009",

language = "English",

volume = "159",

pages = "260--274",

journal = "Agricultural Systems",

issn = "0308-521X",

publisher = "Elsevier",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO2 in a Mediterranean environment

AU - Ruiz-Ramos, M.

AU - Ferrise, Roberto

AU - Rodríguez, A

AU - Lorite, I. J.

AU - Bindi, Marco

AU - Carter, T. R.

AU - Fronzek, S

AU - Palosuo, T.

AU - Pirttioja, N.

AU - Baranowski, P.

AU - Buis, S.

AU - Cammarano, D.

AU - Chen, Y.

AU - Dumont, Bertrand

AU - Ewert, F.

AU - Gaiser, T.

AU - Hlavinka, P.

AU - Hoffmann, H.

AU - Höhn, J. G.

AU - Jurecka, F.

AU - Kersebaum, K. C.

AU - Krzyszczak, J.

AU - Lana, M.

AU - Mechiche-Alami, A.

AU - Minet, J.

AU - Montesino Pouzols, Federico

AU - Nendel, C.

AU - Porter, John Roy

AU - Ruget, F.

AU - Semenov, M. A.

AU - Steinmetz, Z.

AU - Stratonovitch, P.

AU - Supit, Iwan

AU - Tao, F.

AU - Trnka, M.

AU - de Wit, Cynthia A.

AU - Rötter, Reimund P,

PY - 2018/1

Y1 - 2018/1

N2 - Adaptation of crops to climate change has to be addressed locally due to the variability of soil, climate and the specific socio-economic settings influencing farm management decisions. Adaptation of rainfed cropping systems in the Mediterranean is especially challenging due to the projected decline in precipitation in the coming decades, which will increase the risk of droughts. Methods that can help explore uncertainties in climate projections and crop modelling, such as impact response surfaces (IRSs) and ensemble modelling, can then be valuable for identifying effective adaptations. Here, an ensemble of 17 crop models was used to simulate a total of 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) at Lleida (NE Spain). To support the ensemble building, an ex post quality check of model simulations based on several criteria was performed. Those criteria were based on the "According to Our Current Knowledge" (AOCK) concept, which has been formalized here. Adaptations were based on changes in cultivars and management regarding phenology, vernalization, sowing date and irrigation. The effects of adaptation options under changed precipitation (P), temperature (T), [CO2] and soil type were analysed by constructing response surfaces, which we termed, in accordance with their specific purpose, adaptation response surfaces (ARSs). These were created to assess the effect of adaptations through a range of plausible P, T and [CO2] perturbations. The results indicated that impacts of altered climate were predominantly negative. No single adaptation was capable of overcoming the detrimental effect of the complex interactions imposed by the P, T and [CO2] perturbations except for supplementary irrigation (sI), which reduced the potential impacts under most of the perturbations. Yet, a combination of adaptations for dealing with climate change demonstrated that effective adaptation is possible at Lleida. Combinations based on a cultivar without vernalization requirements showed good and wide adaptation potential. Few combined adaptation options performed well under rainfed conditions. However, a single sI was sufficient to develop a high adaptation potential, including options mainly based on spring wheat, current cycle duration and early sowing date. Depending on local environment (e.g. soil type), many of these adaptations can maintain current yield levels under moderate changes in T and P, and some also under strong changes. We conclude that ARSs can offer a useful tool for supporting planning of field level adaptation under conditions of high uncertainty.

AB - Adaptation of crops to climate change has to be addressed locally due to the variability of soil, climate and the specific socio-economic settings influencing farm management decisions. Adaptation of rainfed cropping systems in the Mediterranean is especially challenging due to the projected decline in precipitation in the coming decades, which will increase the risk of droughts. Methods that can help explore uncertainties in climate projections and crop modelling, such as impact response surfaces (IRSs) and ensemble modelling, can then be valuable for identifying effective adaptations. Here, an ensemble of 17 crop models was used to simulate a total of 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) at Lleida (NE Spain). To support the ensemble building, an ex post quality check of model simulations based on several criteria was performed. Those criteria were based on the "According to Our Current Knowledge" (AOCK) concept, which has been formalized here. Adaptations were based on changes in cultivars and management regarding phenology, vernalization, sowing date and irrigation. The effects of adaptation options under changed precipitation (P), temperature (T), [CO2] and soil type were analysed by constructing response surfaces, which we termed, in accordance with their specific purpose, adaptation response surfaces (ARSs). These were created to assess the effect of adaptations through a range of plausible P, T and [CO2] perturbations. The results indicated that impacts of altered climate were predominantly negative. No single adaptation was capable of overcoming the detrimental effect of the complex interactions imposed by the P, T and [CO2] perturbations except for supplementary irrigation (sI), which reduced the potential impacts under most of the perturbations. Yet, a combination of adaptations for dealing with climate change demonstrated that effective adaptation is possible at Lleida. Combinations based on a cultivar without vernalization requirements showed good and wide adaptation potential. Few combined adaptation options performed well under rainfed conditions. However, a single sI was sufficient to develop a high adaptation potential, including options mainly based on spring wheat, current cycle duration and early sowing date. Depending on local environment (e.g. soil type), many of these adaptations can maintain current yield levels under moderate changes in T and P, and some also under strong changes. We conclude that ARSs can offer a useful tool for supporting planning of field level adaptation under conditions of high uncertainty.

KW - AOCK concept

KW - Crop model ensemble

KW - Mediterranean cropping system

KW - Rainfed

KW - Sensitivity analysis

KW - Wheat adaptation

U2 - 10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.009

DO - 10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.009

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85010427024

SN - 0308-521X

VL - 159

SP - 260

EP - 274

JO - Agricultural Systems

JF - Agricultural Systems

ER -