A sow replacement model using Bayesian updating in a three-level hierarchic Markov process. II. Optimization model

TY - JOUR

T1 - A sow replacement model using Bayesian updating in a three-level hierarchic Markov process. II. Optimization model

AU - Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

AU - Søllested, Thomas Algot

PY - 2004

Y1 - 2004

N2 - Recent methodological improvements in replacement models comprising multi-level hierarchical Markov processes and Bayesian updating have hardly been implemented in any replacement model and the aim of this study is to present a sow replacement model that really uses these methodological improvements. The biological model of the replacement model is described in a previous paper and in this paper the optimization model is described. The model is developed as a prototype for use under practical conditions. The application of the model is demonstrated using data from two commercial Danish sow herds. It is concluded that the Bayesian updating technique and the hierarchical structure decrease the size of the state space dramatically. Since parameter estimates vary considerably among herds it is concluded that decision support concerning sow replacement only makes sense with parameters estimated at herd level. It is argued that the multi-level formulation and the standard software comprise a flexible tool and a shortcut to working prototypes

AB - Recent methodological improvements in replacement models comprising multi-level hierarchical Markov processes and Bayesian updating have hardly been implemented in any replacement model and the aim of this study is to present a sow replacement model that really uses these methodological improvements. The biological model of the replacement model is described in a previous paper and in this paper the optimization model is described. The model is developed as a prototype for use under practical conditions. The application of the model is demonstrated using data from two commercial Danish sow herds. It is concluded that the Bayesian updating technique and the hierarchical structure decrease the size of the state space dramatically. Since parameter estimates vary considerably among herds it is concluded that decision support concerning sow replacement only makes sense with parameters estimated at herd level. It is argued that the multi-level formulation and the standard software comprise a flexible tool and a shortcut to working prototypes

U2 - 10.1016/j.livprodsci.2003.07.005

DO - 10.1016/j.livprodsci.2003.07.005

M3 - Journal article

SN - 1871-1413

VL - 87

SP - 25

EP - 36

JO - Livestock Science

JF - Livestock Science

IS - 1

ER -