A formal decomposition of declining youth crime in Denmark

Lars Højsgaard Andersen; Anne Sofie Tegner Anker; Signe Hald Andersen

doi:10.4054/demres.2016.35.44

A formal decomposition of declining youth crime in Denmark

Lars Højsgaard Andersen, Anne Sofie Tegner Anker, Signe Hald Andersen

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

BACKGROUND Over the recent decades and across most developed democracies, youth crime has been in steady decline, and declining youth crime now constitutes an important contemporary demographic change. Yet underneath this change lingers the question of how we should best grasp declining youth crime. OBJECTIVE To decompose declining youth crime in Denmark into its extensive and intensive margins, and show results from birth cohort analyses. METHODS We apply Das Gupta's (1993) method for rate decomposition to Danish registry data that holds information on all criminal justice contacts of full birth cohorts. We show results among 15-17-year-old youth by year as well as follow birth cohorts by age. RESULTS The main driver of declining youth crime in Denmark is that fewer young people are experiencing contact with the criminal justice (extensive margin), and not lower rates of criminal recidivism among youth with criminal justice contact (intensive margin); a result which is found using both year and birth cohort analyses. CONTRIBUTION The knowledge provided in our descriptive findings - that change at the extensive margin is the main driver of declining youth crime in Denmark - represents a first step towards understanding the important demographic change that youth crime has been in decline across developed democracies over the past decades.

Original language	English
Journal	Demographic Research
Volume	35
Issue number	44
Pages (from-to)	1303-1316
ISSN	1435-9871
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2016.35.44
Publication status	Published - 15 Nov 2016

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Cite this

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title = "A formal decomposition of declining youth crime in Denmark",

abstract = "BACKGROUND Over the recent decades and across most developed democracies, youth crime has been in steady decline, and declining youth crime now constitutes an important contemporary demographic change. Yet underneath this change lingers the question of how we should best grasp declining youth crime. OBJECTIVE To decompose declining youth crime in Denmark into its extensive and intensive margins, and show results from birth cohort analyses. METHODS We apply Das Gupta's (1993) method for rate decomposition to Danish registry data that holds information on all criminal justice contacts of full birth cohorts. We show results among 15-17-year-old youth by year as well as follow birth cohorts by age. RESULTS The main driver of declining youth crime in Denmark is that fewer young people are experiencing contact with the criminal justice (extensive margin), and not lower rates of criminal recidivism among youth with criminal justice contact (intensive margin); a result which is found using both year and birth cohort analyses. CONTRIBUTION The knowledge provided in our descriptive findings - that change at the extensive margin is the main driver of declining youth crime in Denmark - represents a first step towards understanding the important demographic change that youth crime has been in decline across developed democracies over the past decades.",

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T1 - A formal decomposition of declining youth crime in Denmark

AU - Andersen, Lars Højsgaard

AU - Anker, Anne Sofie Tegner

AU - Andersen, Signe Hald

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Y1 - 2016/11/15

N2 - BACKGROUND Over the recent decades and across most developed democracies, youth crime has been in steady decline, and declining youth crime now constitutes an important contemporary demographic change. Yet underneath this change lingers the question of how we should best grasp declining youth crime. OBJECTIVE To decompose declining youth crime in Denmark into its extensive and intensive margins, and show results from birth cohort analyses. METHODS We apply Das Gupta's (1993) method for rate decomposition to Danish registry data that holds information on all criminal justice contacts of full birth cohorts. We show results among 15-17-year-old youth by year as well as follow birth cohorts by age. RESULTS The main driver of declining youth crime in Denmark is that fewer young people are experiencing contact with the criminal justice (extensive margin), and not lower rates of criminal recidivism among youth with criminal justice contact (intensive margin); a result which is found using both year and birth cohort analyses. CONTRIBUTION The knowledge provided in our descriptive findings - that change at the extensive margin is the main driver of declining youth crime in Denmark - represents a first step towards understanding the important demographic change that youth crime has been in decline across developed democracies over the past decades.

AB - BACKGROUND Over the recent decades and across most developed democracies, youth crime has been in steady decline, and declining youth crime now constitutes an important contemporary demographic change. Yet underneath this change lingers the question of how we should best grasp declining youth crime. OBJECTIVE To decompose declining youth crime in Denmark into its extensive and intensive margins, and show results from birth cohort analyses. METHODS We apply Das Gupta's (1993) method for rate decomposition to Danish registry data that holds information on all criminal justice contacts of full birth cohorts. We show results among 15-17-year-old youth by year as well as follow birth cohorts by age. RESULTS The main driver of declining youth crime in Denmark is that fewer young people are experiencing contact with the criminal justice (extensive margin), and not lower rates of criminal recidivism among youth with criminal justice contact (intensive margin); a result which is found using both year and birth cohort analyses. CONTRIBUTION The knowledge provided in our descriptive findings - that change at the extensive margin is the main driver of declining youth crime in Denmark - represents a first step towards understanding the important demographic change that youth crime has been in decline across developed democracies over the past decades.

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DO - 10.4054/demres.2016.35.44

M3 - Journal article

SN - 1435-9871

VL - 35

SP - 1303

EP - 1316

JO - Demographic Research

JF - Demographic Research

IS - 44

ER -

A formal decomposition of declining youth crime in Denmark

Abstract

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