Validation of different Cariogram settings and factor combinations in preschool children from areas with high caries risk

TY - JOUR

T1 - Validation of different Cariogram settings and factor combinations in preschool children from areas with high caries risk

AU - Birpou, Eleftheria

AU - Agouropoulos, Andreas

AU - Twetman, Svante

AU - Kavvadia, Katerina

PY - 2019/7

Y1 - 2019/7

N2 - Background: Caries risk assessment in preschool children has been limited validated. Aim: To validate caries predictive ability of Cariogram using different combinations of factors and settings in preschool children from areas with high caries risk. Design: Two to five years old children (N = 175) were examined for caries (cavitated and non-cavitated lesions), at baseline and after 1 and 2 years. Mutans streptococci counts (MS) and saliva buffer capacity (SBC) were measured with chair side tests. Diet and oral health attitude were assessed through a parental questionnaire. Baseline caries risk was calculated using standard and high-risk group variables in Cariogram either with nine factors or excluding MS and SBC. Poisson regression models, ROC analysis and information criteria (AIC and BIC), P < 0.05, were used to investigate the predictive ability of Cariograms and to quantify the associations. Results: Accuracy of Cariogram was found limited. Cariograms with MS showed higher sensitivity but lower specificity than those without bacterial counts. Standard set Cariograms with MS counts performed slightly better than the other models, but the difference was not statistically significant. Caries prediction with standard and high set Cariograms was also found limited. Conclusions: Cariogram with various factors and settings displayed suboptimal ability to predict caries in this population.

AB - Background: Caries risk assessment in preschool children has been limited validated. Aim: To validate caries predictive ability of Cariogram using different combinations of factors and settings in preschool children from areas with high caries risk. Design: Two to five years old children (N = 175) were examined for caries (cavitated and non-cavitated lesions), at baseline and after 1 and 2 years. Mutans streptococci counts (MS) and saliva buffer capacity (SBC) were measured with chair side tests. Diet and oral health attitude were assessed through a parental questionnaire. Baseline caries risk was calculated using standard and high-risk group variables in Cariogram either with nine factors or excluding MS and SBC. Poisson regression models, ROC analysis and information criteria (AIC and BIC), P < 0.05, were used to investigate the predictive ability of Cariograms and to quantify the associations. Results: Accuracy of Cariogram was found limited. Cariograms with MS showed higher sensitivity but lower specificity than those without bacterial counts. Standard set Cariograms with MS counts performed slightly better than the other models, but the difference was not statistically significant. Caries prediction with standard and high set Cariograms was also found limited. Conclusions: Cariogram with various factors and settings displayed suboptimal ability to predict caries in this population.

KW - caries

KW - Cariogram

KW - mutans streptococci

KW - preschool children

KW - risk assessment

KW - saliva buffer capacity

U2 - 10.1111/ipd.12476

DO - 10.1111/ipd.12476

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 30735595

AN - SCOPUS:85062356575

SN - 0960-7439

VL - 29

SP - 448

EP - 455

JO - International Journal of Paediatric Dentistry

JF - International Journal of Paediatric Dentistry

IS - 4

ER -