Trade and Development: Lessons from Vietnam's Past Trade Agreements

Philip Abbott; Jeanet Bentzen; Finn Tarp

doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2008.04.005

Trade and Development: Lessons from Vietnam's Past Trade Agreements

Philip Abbott, Jeanet Bentzen, Finn Tarp

36 Citationer (Scopus)

Abstract

History, not predictions of CGE models or cross-country growth studies, shows a strong relationship between trade and development. Vietnam's experience with bilateral trade agreements, comparing actual outcomes with predictions from existing models, demonstrates this and the limitations of research methodologies. Forecasts for Vietnam greatly underestimated the impact of past agreements because tariff reform was not the main factor driving adjustments. Addressing market imperfections through institutional reform was central to bringing output and trade expansion. Key questions for future research are whether policy reform will result in new institutional changes, and how resulting incentives determine the evolution of investment by sector.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Tidsskrift	World Development
Vol/bind	37
Udgave nummer	2
Sider (fra-til)	341-353
Antal sider	13
ISSN	0305-750X
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2008.04.005
Status	Udgivet - 2009

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abstract = "History, not predictions of CGE models or cross-country growth studies, shows a strong relationship between trade and development. Vietnam's experience with bilateral trade agreements, comparing actual outcomes with predictions from existing models, demonstrates this and the limitations of research methodologies. Forecasts for Vietnam greatly underestimated the impact of past agreements because tariff reform was not the main factor driving adjustments. Addressing market imperfections through institutional reform was central to bringing output and trade expansion. Key questions for future research are whether policy reform will result in new institutional changes, and how resulting incentives determine the evolution of investment by sector.",

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N2 - History, not predictions of CGE models or cross-country growth studies, shows a strong relationship between trade and development. Vietnam's experience with bilateral trade agreements, comparing actual outcomes with predictions from existing models, demonstrates this and the limitations of research methodologies. Forecasts for Vietnam greatly underestimated the impact of past agreements because tariff reform was not the main factor driving adjustments. Addressing market imperfections through institutional reform was central to bringing output and trade expansion. Key questions for future research are whether policy reform will result in new institutional changes, and how resulting incentives determine the evolution of investment by sector.

AB - History, not predictions of CGE models or cross-country growth studies, shows a strong relationship between trade and development. Vietnam's experience with bilateral trade agreements, comparing actual outcomes with predictions from existing models, demonstrates this and the limitations of research methodologies. Forecasts for Vietnam greatly underestimated the impact of past agreements because tariff reform was not the main factor driving adjustments. Addressing market imperfections through institutional reform was central to bringing output and trade expansion. Key questions for future research are whether policy reform will result in new institutional changes, and how resulting incentives determine the evolution of investment by sector.

KW - Faculty of Social Sciences

KW - trade liberalization

KW - bilateral trade agreements

KW - WTO accession

KW - Vietnam

U2 - 10.1016/j.worlddev.2008.04.005

DO - 10.1016/j.worlddev.2008.04.005

M3 - Journal article

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JO - World Development

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ER -

Trade and Development: Lessons from Vietnam's Past Trade Agreements

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