The Timing of Terrorist Attacks: An Optimal Stopping Approach

TY - JOUR

T1 - The Timing of Terrorist Attacks

T2 - An Optimal Stopping Approach

AU - Jensen, Thomas

PY - 2016/1/1

Y1 - 2016/1/1

N2 - I use a simple optimal stopping model to derive policy relevant insights on the timing of one-shot attacks by small autonomous terrorist units or “lone wolf ” individuals. A main insight is that an increase in proactive counterterrorism measures can lead to a short term increase in the number of attempted terrorist attacks because it makes it more risky for existing terrorist units to pursue further development of capabilities. This is consistent with the events in London in 2005 where a terrorist attack on 7 July was followed by a similar but unsuccessful attack two weeks later.

AB - I use a simple optimal stopping model to derive policy relevant insights on the timing of one-shot attacks by small autonomous terrorist units or “lone wolf ” individuals. A main insight is that an increase in proactive counterterrorism measures can lead to a short term increase in the number of attempted terrorist attacks because it makes it more risky for existing terrorist units to pursue further development of capabilities. This is consistent with the events in London in 2005 where a terrorist attack on 7 July was followed by a similar but unsuccessful attack two weeks later.

KW - Faculty of Social Sciences

KW - Terrorism

KW - timing of attacks

KW - Counterterrorism

KW - formal modeling

KW - optimal stopping

U2 - 10.1177/2053168016631582

DO - 10.1177/2053168016631582

M3 - Journal article

SN - 2053-1680

JO - Research and Politics

JF - Research and Politics

ER -