Sensitivity of burned area in Europe to climate change, atmospheric CO2 levels, and demography: a comparison of two fire-vegetation models

TY - JOUR

T1 - Sensitivity of burned area in Europe to climate change, atmospheric CO2 levels, and demography

T2 - a comparison of two fire-vegetation models

AU - Wu, Minchao

AU - Knorr, Wolfgang

AU - Thonicke, Kirsten

AU - Schurgers, Guy

AU - Camia, Andrea

AU - Arneth, Almut

PY - 2015/11/1

Y1 - 2015/11/1

N2 - Global environmental changes and human activity influence wildland fires worldwide, but the relative importance of the individual factors varies regionally and their interplay can be difficult to disentangle. Here we evaluate projected future changes in burned area at the European and sub-European scale, and we investigate uncertainties in the relative importance of the determining factors. We simulated future burned area with LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE, a patch-dynamic global vegetation model with a semiempirical fire model, and LPJmL-SPITFIRE, a dynamic global vegetation model with a process-based fire model. Applying a range of future projections that combine different scenarios for climate changes, enhanced CO2 concentrations, and population growth, we investigated the individual and combined effects of these drivers on the total area and regions affected by fire in the 21st century. The two models differed notably with respect to the dominating drivers and underlying processes. Fire-vegetation interactions and socioeconomic effects emerged as important uncertainties for future burned area in some European regions. Burned area of eastern Europe increased in both models, pointing at an emerging new fire-prone region that should gain further attention for future fire management.

AB - Global environmental changes and human activity influence wildland fires worldwide, but the relative importance of the individual factors varies regionally and their interplay can be difficult to disentangle. Here we evaluate projected future changes in burned area at the European and sub-European scale, and we investigate uncertainties in the relative importance of the determining factors. We simulated future burned area with LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE, a patch-dynamic global vegetation model with a semiempirical fire model, and LPJmL-SPITFIRE, a dynamic global vegetation model with a process-based fire model. Applying a range of future projections that combine different scenarios for climate changes, enhanced CO2 concentrations, and population growth, we investigated the individual and combined effects of these drivers on the total area and regions affected by fire in the 21st century. The two models differed notably with respect to the dominating drivers and underlying processes. Fire-vegetation interactions and socioeconomic effects emerged as important uncertainties for future burned area in some European regions. Burned area of eastern Europe increased in both models, pointing at an emerging new fire-prone region that should gain further attention for future fire management.

U2 - 10.1002/2015JG003036

DO - 10.1002/2015JG003036

M3 - Journal article

SN - 2169-9003

VL - 120

SP - 2256

EP - 2272

JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface

JF - Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface

IS - 11

ER -