Scenarios on future land changes in the West African Sahel

TY - JOUR

T1 - Scenarios on future land changes in the West African Sahel

AU - Lambin, Eric

AU - D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

AU - Mertz, Ole

AU - Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard

AU - Rasmussen, Kjeld

PY - 2014/1

Y1 - 2014/1

N2 - In an attempt to anticipate possible futures of drylands of West Africa in the face of rapid socio-economic and environmental changes, we developed four scenarios based on recent survey data, the literature and our knowledge of the region. The four scenarios are inspired by those developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: (1) ‘downward spiral’ characterized by rapid climate change, expansion of agriculture and chaotic urban growth; (2) ‘integrated economy’ with integrated land management, food production for local markets and rural–urban exchanges; (3) ‘open doors’ characterized by large-scale out-migrations, land grabbing by foreign companies and development aid and (4) ‘climate change mitigation’ with an increase in biofuel crops, land management for carbon capture and development of off-farm activities. We conclude that the Sahel region is most likely moving away from being a highly climate-dependent region based on agriculture towards a more open and diversified economy. West African countries have to find a balance between the new opportunities and risks created by economic globalization.

AB - In an attempt to anticipate possible futures of drylands of West Africa in the face of rapid socio-economic and environmental changes, we developed four scenarios based on recent survey data, the literature and our knowledge of the region. The four scenarios are inspired by those developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: (1) ‘downward spiral’ characterized by rapid climate change, expansion of agriculture and chaotic urban growth; (2) ‘integrated economy’ with integrated land management, food production for local markets and rural–urban exchanges; (3) ‘open doors’ characterized by large-scale out-migrations, land grabbing by foreign companies and development aid and (4) ‘climate change mitigation’ with an increase in biofuel crops, land management for carbon capture and development of off-farm activities. We conclude that the Sahel region is most likely moving away from being a highly climate-dependent region based on agriculture towards a more open and diversified economy. West African countries have to find a balance between the new opportunities and risks created by economic globalization.

U2 - 10.1080/00167223.2013.878229

DO - 10.1080/00167223.2013.878229

M3 - Journal article

SN - 0016-7223

VL - 114

SP - 76

EP - 83

JO - Geografisk Tidsskrift/Danish Journal of Geography

JF - Geografisk Tidsskrift/Danish Journal of Geography

IS - 1

ER -