Risks of future drugs: A Danish expert Delphi

Claus Møldrup*, Janine Marie Morgall

*Corresponding author af dette arbejde
    30 Citationer (Scopus)

    Abstract

    This study adopts the prospective perspective in an attempt to explore and define the risks of future drugs. The use of the Delphi method in this study is substantiated by its psychological, financial, and (in the case of the pharmaceutical field) relevant advantages. This study is one of the first Delphi studies to fully utilize Internet (also referred to as the worldwide web [www]) html technology to collect and process data. The two rounds of questionnaires seek both qualitative and quantitative data through Likert-scale questions with mandatory open-ended questions for argumentation. Thirty (round 1) and 22 (round 2) top-level experts drawn from all of the pharmaceutical research and development organizations in Denmark participated. This study concludes that risks of future drugs expand and develop beyond our existing assessment and perception mechanisms. They have the ability to transform side effects from the traditional individual physical level to a societal level with economic, political, and ethical consequences. The study identifies several serious bottlenecks in drug discovery and development in the future; paradigm conflicts and, more important, the assessment of risks associated with future drugs need new and alternative methods and assessment procedures. This is essential in order to capture and cope with the unseen and new side effects that the emergence of the "informational paradigm" within the field of drugs will undoubtedly bring about.

    OriginalsprogEngelsk
    TidsskriftTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
    Vol/bind67
    Udgave nummer2-3
    Sider (fra-til)273-289
    Antal sider17
    ISSN0040-1625
    DOI
    StatusUdgivet - 1 jan. 2001

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