Risk and uncertainty in adaptive forest management under climate change

TY - CHAP

T1 - Risk and uncertainty in adaptive forest management under climate change

AU - Yousefpour, Rasoul

AU - Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

PY - 2013/6/1

Y1 - 2013/6/1

N2 - This chapter deals with the complex decision-making problems involving uncertainty and risk that climate change implies for forest owners and managers. Modeling approaches that could support adaptive management strategies are needed because climate change implies increased economic uncertainty. On the other hand, new and reliable information becomes available as time passes and improves our understanding of the impacts of climate change on the dynamics of forest ecosystems. We demonstrate the need for updating decision makers' beliefs and knowledge about the climate state and apply this in adaptive decision-making. The approach explicitly allows evaluation of the effect of learning on decision-making as future climate is gradually becoming known based on the observations of climate state and its impacts. The time that will elapse before this depend on the divergence among climate trajectories, the long-term rate of change, and the short-term variability in climate. Relying on updated beliefs, adaptation to climate change at each decision point in time may call for a change in forest management regime. This is the case if it ensures optimal utilization of forest resources, e.g. for biomass and bioenergy production. Moreover, optimal decisions may differ locally depending on the risk attitude of forest owners and the bio-geography of their forest resources.

AB - This chapter deals with the complex decision-making problems involving uncertainty and risk that climate change implies for forest owners and managers. Modeling approaches that could support adaptive management strategies are needed because climate change implies increased economic uncertainty. On the other hand, new and reliable information becomes available as time passes and improves our understanding of the impacts of climate change on the dynamics of forest ecosystems. We demonstrate the need for updating decision makers' beliefs and knowledge about the climate state and apply this in adaptive decision-making. The approach explicitly allows evaluation of the effect of learning on decision-making as future climate is gradually becoming known based on the observations of climate state and its impacts. The time that will elapse before this depend on the divergence among climate trajectories, the long-term rate of change, and the short-term variability in climate. Relying on updated beliefs, adaptation to climate change at each decision point in time may call for a change in forest management regime. This is the case if it ensures optimal utilization of forest resources, e.g. for biomass and bioenergy production. Moreover, optimal decisions may differ locally depending on the risk attitude of forest owners and the bio-geography of their forest resources.

M3 - Book chapter

SN - 978-1-4614-8390-8

SP - 223

EP - 238

BT - Forest BioEnergy and Production

A2 - Kellomäki, Seppo

A2 - Kilpeläinen, Antti

A2 - Alam, Ashraful

PB - Springer Science+Business Media

CY - New York, Heidelberg, Dordrecht, London

ER -