Prognostic Score for Predicting Risk of Dementia Over 10 Years While Accounting for Competing Risk of Death

TY - JOUR

T1 - Prognostic Score for Predicting Risk of Dementia Over 10 Years While Accounting for Competing Risk of Death

AU - Jacqmin-Gadda, Hélène

AU - Blanche, Paul Frédéric

AU - Chary, Emilie

AU - Loubère, Lucie

AU - Amieva, Hélène

AU - Dartigues, Jean François

PY - 2014/10/15

Y1 - 2014/10/15

N2 - Early detection of subjects at high risk of developing dementia is essential. By dealing with censoring and competing risk of death, we developed a score for predicting 10-year dementia risk by combining cognitive tests, and we assessed whether inclusion of cognitive change over the previous year increased its discrimination. Data came from the French prospective cohort study Personnes Agées QUID (PAQUID) and included 3,777 subjects aged 65 years or older (1988-1998). The combined prediction score was estimated by means of an illness-death model handling interval censoring and competing risk of death. Its predictive ability was measured using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, with 2 different definitions depending on the way subjects who died without a dementia diagnosis were considered. To account for right-censoring and interval censoring, we estimated the ROC curves by means of a weighting approach and a model-based imputation estimator. The combined score exhibited an area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of 0.81 for discriminating future demented subjects from subjects alive and nondemented 10 years later and an AUROC of 0.75 for discriminating future demented subjects from all other subjects (including deceased persons). Adjustment for cognitive change over the previous year did not improve prediction.

AB - Early detection of subjects at high risk of developing dementia is essential. By dealing with censoring and competing risk of death, we developed a score for predicting 10-year dementia risk by combining cognitive tests, and we assessed whether inclusion of cognitive change over the previous year increased its discrimination. Data came from the French prospective cohort study Personnes Agées QUID (PAQUID) and included 3,777 subjects aged 65 years or older (1988-1998). The combined prediction score was estimated by means of an illness-death model handling interval censoring and competing risk of death. Its predictive ability was measured using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, with 2 different definitions depending on the way subjects who died without a dementia diagnosis were considered. To account for right-censoring and interval censoring, we estimated the ROC curves by means of a weighting approach and a model-based imputation estimator. The combined score exhibited an area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of 0.81 for discriminating future demented subjects from subjects alive and nondemented 10 years later and an AUROC of 0.75 for discriminating future demented subjects from all other subjects (including deceased persons). Adjustment for cognitive change over the previous year did not improve prediction.

KW - competing risks

KW - death

KW - dementia

KW - interval censoring

KW - prediction

KW - ROC curve

U2 - 10.1093/aje/kwu202

DO - 10.1093/aje/kwu202

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 25190680

AN - SCOPUS:84921741058

SN - 0002-9262

VL - 180

SP - 790

EP - 798

JO - American Journal of Epidemiology

JF - American Journal of Epidemiology

IS - 8

ER -