Prediction of survival after surgery due to skeletal metastases in the extremities

TY - JOUR

T1 - Prediction of survival after surgery due to skeletal metastases in the extremities

AU - Sørensen, M S

AU - Gerds, T A

AU - Hindsø, K

AU - Petersen, M M

N1 - ©2016 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

PY - 2016/2

Y1 - 2016/2

N2 - Aims The purpose of this study was to develop a prognostic model for predicting survival of patients undergoing surgery owing to metastatic bone disease (MBD) in the appendicular skeleton. Methods We included a historical cohort of 130 consecutive patients (mean age 64 years, 30 to 85; 76 females/54 males) who underwent joint arthroplasty surgery (140 procedures) owing to MBD in the appendicular skeleton during the period between January 2003 and December 2008. Primary cancer, pre-operative haemoglobin, fracture versus impending fracture, Karnofsky score, visceral metastases, multiple bony metastases and American Society of Anaesthesiologist's score were included into a series of logistic regression models. The outcome was the survival status at three, six and 12 months respectively. Results were internally validated based on 1000 cross-validations and reported as time-dependent area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUC) for predictions of outcome. Results The predictive scores obtained showed AUC values of 79.1% (95% confidence intervals (CI) 65.6 to 89.6), 80.9% (95% CI 70.3 to 90.84) and 85.1% (95% CI 73.5 to 93.9) at three, six and 12 months. Discussion In conclusion, we have presented and internally validated a model for predicting survival after surgery owing to MBD in the appendicular skeleton. The model is the first, to our knowledge, built solely on material from patients who only had surgery in the appendicular skeleton.

AB - Aims The purpose of this study was to develop a prognostic model for predicting survival of patients undergoing surgery owing to metastatic bone disease (MBD) in the appendicular skeleton. Methods We included a historical cohort of 130 consecutive patients (mean age 64 years, 30 to 85; 76 females/54 males) who underwent joint arthroplasty surgery (140 procedures) owing to MBD in the appendicular skeleton during the period between January 2003 and December 2008. Primary cancer, pre-operative haemoglobin, fracture versus impending fracture, Karnofsky score, visceral metastases, multiple bony metastases and American Society of Anaesthesiologist's score were included into a series of logistic regression models. The outcome was the survival status at three, six and 12 months respectively. Results were internally validated based on 1000 cross-validations and reported as time-dependent area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUC) for predictions of outcome. Results The predictive scores obtained showed AUC values of 79.1% (95% confidence intervals (CI) 65.6 to 89.6), 80.9% (95% CI 70.3 to 90.84) and 85.1% (95% CI 73.5 to 93.9) at three, six and 12 months. Discussion In conclusion, we have presented and internally validated a model for predicting survival after surgery owing to MBD in the appendicular skeleton. The model is the first, to our knowledge, built solely on material from patients who only had surgery in the appendicular skeleton.

U2 - 10.1302/0301-620X.98B2.36107

DO - 10.1302/0301-620X.98B2.36107

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 26850435

SN - 0301-620X

VL - 98-B

SP - 271

EP - 277

JO - Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery: British Volume

JF - Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery: British Volume

IS - 2

ER -