Outcome manipulation in corporate prediction markets

Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Sørensen

doi:10.1162/jeea.2007.5.2-3.554

Outcome manipulation in corporate prediction markets

Marco Ottaviani, Peter Norman Sørensen

Økonomisk Institut

24 Citationer (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper presents a framework for applying prediction markets to corporate decision-making. The analysis is motivated by the recent surge of interest in markets as information aggregation devices and their potential use within firms. We characterize the amount of outcome manipulation that results in equilibrium and the impact of this manipulation on market prices

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Tidsskrift	Journal of the European Economic Association
Vol/bind	5
Udgave nummer	2-3
Sider (fra-til)	554-563
ISSN	1542-4766
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1162/jeea.2007.5.2-3.554
Status	Udgivet - 2007

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10.1162/jeea.2007.5.2-3.554

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title = "Outcome manipulation in corporate prediction markets",

abstract = "This paper presents a framework for applying prediction markets to corporate decision-making. The analysis is motivated by the recent surge of interest in markets as information aggregation devices and their potential use within firms. We characterize the amount of outcome manipulation that results in equilibrium and the impact of this manipulation on market prices",

keywords = "Faculty of Social Sciences, predictions, information aggregation, forecasting, incentives",

author = "Marco Ottaviani and S{\o}rensen, {Peter Norman}",

note = "JEL Classification: D71, D82, D83",

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AU - Ottaviani, Marco

AU - Sørensen, Peter Norman

N1 - JEL Classification: D71, D82, D83

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AB - This paper presents a framework for applying prediction markets to corporate decision-making. The analysis is motivated by the recent surge of interest in markets as information aggregation devices and their potential use within firms. We characterize the amount of outcome manipulation that results in equilibrium and the impact of this manipulation on market prices

KW - Faculty of Social Sciences

KW - predictions

KW - information aggregation

KW - forecasting

KW - incentives

U2 - 10.1162/jeea.2007.5.2-3.554

DO - 10.1162/jeea.2007.5.2-3.554

M3 - Journal article

SN - 1542-4774

VL - 5

SP - 554

EP - 563

JO - Journal of the European Economic Association

JF - Journal of the European Economic Association

IS - 2-3

ER -

Outcome manipulation in corporate prediction markets

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