Methods for estimating disease transmission rates: Evaluating the precision of Poisson regression and two novel methods

TY - JOUR

T1 - Methods for estimating disease transmission rates

T2 - Evaluating the precision of Poisson regression and two novel methods

AU - Kirkeby, Carsten

AU - Halasa, Tariq

AU - Gussmann, Maya

AU - Toft, Nils

AU - Græsbøll, Kaare

PY - 2017/12/1

Y1 - 2017/12/1

N2 - Precise estimates of disease transmission rates are critical for epidemiological simulation models. Most often these rates must be estimated from longitudinal field data, which are costly and time-consuming to conduct. Consequently, measures to reduce cost like increased sampling intervals or subsampling of the population are implemented. To assess the impact of such measures we implement two different SIS models to simulate disease transmission: A simple closed population model and a realistic dairy herd including population dynamics. We analyze the accuracy of different methods for estimating the transmission rate. We use data from the two simulation models and vary the sampling intervals and the size of the population sampled. We devise two new methods to determine transmission rate, and compare these to the frequently used Poisson regression method in both epidemic and endemic situations. For most tested scenarios these new methods perform similar or better than Poisson regression, especially in the case of long sampling intervals. We conclude that transmission rate estimates are easily biased, which is important to take into account when using these rates in simulation models.

AB - Precise estimates of disease transmission rates are critical for epidemiological simulation models. Most often these rates must be estimated from longitudinal field data, which are costly and time-consuming to conduct. Consequently, measures to reduce cost like increased sampling intervals or subsampling of the population are implemented. To assess the impact of such measures we implement two different SIS models to simulate disease transmission: A simple closed population model and a realistic dairy herd including population dynamics. We analyze the accuracy of different methods for estimating the transmission rate. We use data from the two simulation models and vary the sampling intervals and the size of the population sampled. We devise two new methods to determine transmission rate, and compare these to the frequently used Poisson regression method in both epidemic and endemic situations. For most tested scenarios these new methods perform similar or better than Poisson regression, especially in the case of long sampling intervals. We conclude that transmission rate estimates are easily biased, which is important to take into account when using these rates in simulation models.

UR - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-26491-5

U2 - 10.1038/s41598-017-09209-x

DO - 10.1038/s41598-017-09209-x

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 28842576

AN - SCOPUS:85028368203

SN - 2045-2322

VL - 7

JO - Scientific Reports

JF - Scientific Reports

IS - 1

M1 - 9496

ER -