Limits of agricultural greenhouse gas calculators to predict soil N2O and CH4 fluxes in tropical agriculture

Meryl Richards; Ruth Metzel; Ngonidzashe Chirinda; Proyuth Ly; George Nyamadzawo; Quynh Duong Vu; Andreas de Neergaard; Myles Oelofse; Eva Wollenberg; Emma Keller; Daniella Malin; Jørgen E. Olesen; Jonathan Hillier; Todd S Rosenstock

doi:10.1038/srep26279

Limits of agricultural greenhouse gas calculators to predict soil N₂O and CH₄ fluxes in tropical agriculture

Meryl Richards, Ruth Metzel, Ngonidzashe Chirinda, Proyuth Ly, George Nyamadzawo, Quynh Duong Vu, Andreas de Neergaard, Myles Oelofse, Eva Wollenberg, Emma Keller, Daniella Malin, Jørgen E. Olesen, Jonathan Hillier, Todd S Rosenstock

Plante- og Jordvidenskab

15 Citationer (Scopus)

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Abstract

Demand for tools to rapidly assess greenhouse gas impacts from policy and technological change in the agricultural sector has catalyzed the development of 'GHG calculators'- simple accounting approaches that use a mix of emission factors and empirical models to calculate GHG emissions with minimal input data. GHG calculators, however, rely on models calibrated from measurements conducted overwhelmingly under temperate, developed country conditions. Here we show that GHG calculators may poorly estimate emissions in tropical developing countries by comparing calculator predictions against measurements from Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Estimates based on GHG calculators were greater than measurements in 70% of the cases, exceeding twice the measured flux nearly half the time. For 41% of the comparisons, calculators incorrectly predicted whether emissions would increase or decrease with a change in management. These results raise concerns about applying GHG calculators to tropical farming systems and emphasize the need to broaden the scope of the underlying data.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Artikelnummer	26279
Tidsskrift	Scientific Reports
Vol/bind	6
Antal sider	8
ISSN	2045-2322
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1038/srep26279
Status	Udgivet - 20 maj 2016

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10.1038/srep26279Licens: CC BY

Limits of agricultural greenhouse gas calculators to predict soil N2O and CH4 fluxes in tropical agricultureForlagets udgivne version, 479 KBLicens: CC BY

Citationsformater

Richards, M., Metzel, R., Chirinda, N., Ly, P., Nyamadzawo, G., Duong Vu, Q., de Neergaard, A., Oelofse, M., Wollenberg, E., Keller, E., Malin, D., Olesen, J. E., Hillier, J., & Rosenstock, T. S. (2016). Limits of agricultural greenhouse gas calculators to predict soil N₂O and CH₄ fluxes in tropical agriculture. Scientific Reports, 6, [26279]. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep26279

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abstract = "Demand for tools to rapidly assess greenhouse gas impacts from policy and technological change in the agricultural sector has catalyzed the development of 'GHG calculators'- simple accounting approaches that use a mix of emission factors and empirical models to calculate GHG emissions with minimal input data. GHG calculators, however, rely on models calibrated from measurements conducted overwhelmingly under temperate, developed country conditions. Here we show that GHG calculators may poorly estimate emissions in tropical developing countries by comparing calculator predictions against measurements from Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Estimates based on GHG calculators were greater than measurements in 70% of the cases, exceeding twice the measured flux nearly half the time. For 41% of the comparisons, calculators incorrectly predicted whether emissions would increase or decrease with a change in management. These results raise concerns about applying GHG calculators to tropical farming systems and emphasize the need to broaden the scope of the underlying data.",

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author = "Meryl Richards and Ruth Metzel and Ngonidzashe Chirinda and Proyuth Ly and George Nyamadzawo and {Duong Vu}, Quynh and {de Neergaard}, Andreas and Myles Oelofse and Eva Wollenberg and Emma Keller and Daniella Malin and Olesen, {J{\o}rgen E.} and Jonathan Hillier and Rosenstock, {Todd S}",

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T1 - Limits of agricultural greenhouse gas calculators to predict soil N2O and CH4 fluxes in tropical agriculture

AU - Richards, Meryl

AU - Metzel, Ruth

AU - Chirinda, Ngonidzashe

AU - Ly, Proyuth

AU - Nyamadzawo, George

AU - Duong Vu, Quynh

AU - de Neergaard, Andreas

AU - Oelofse, Myles

AU - Wollenberg, Eva

AU - Keller, Emma

AU - Malin, Daniella

AU - Olesen, Jørgen E.

AU - Hillier, Jonathan

AU - Rosenstock, Todd S

PY - 2016/5/20

Y1 - 2016/5/20

N2 - Demand for tools to rapidly assess greenhouse gas impacts from policy and technological change in the agricultural sector has catalyzed the development of 'GHG calculators'- simple accounting approaches that use a mix of emission factors and empirical models to calculate GHG emissions with minimal input data. GHG calculators, however, rely on models calibrated from measurements conducted overwhelmingly under temperate, developed country conditions. Here we show that GHG calculators may poorly estimate emissions in tropical developing countries by comparing calculator predictions against measurements from Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Estimates based on GHG calculators were greater than measurements in 70% of the cases, exceeding twice the measured flux nearly half the time. For 41% of the comparisons, calculators incorrectly predicted whether emissions would increase or decrease with a change in management. These results raise concerns about applying GHG calculators to tropical farming systems and emphasize the need to broaden the scope of the underlying data.

AB - Demand for tools to rapidly assess greenhouse gas impacts from policy and technological change in the agricultural sector has catalyzed the development of 'GHG calculators'- simple accounting approaches that use a mix of emission factors and empirical models to calculate GHG emissions with minimal input data. GHG calculators, however, rely on models calibrated from measurements conducted overwhelmingly under temperate, developed country conditions. Here we show that GHG calculators may poorly estimate emissions in tropical developing countries by comparing calculator predictions against measurements from Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Estimates based on GHG calculators were greater than measurements in 70% of the cases, exceeding twice the measured flux nearly half the time. For 41% of the comparisons, calculators incorrectly predicted whether emissions would increase or decrease with a change in management. These results raise concerns about applying GHG calculators to tropical farming systems and emphasize the need to broaden the scope of the underlying data.

KW - Journal Article

U2 - 10.1038/srep26279

DO - 10.1038/srep26279

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 27197778

SN - 2045-2322

VL - 6

JO - Scientific Reports

JF - Scientific Reports

M1 - 26279

ER -

Limits of agricultural greenhouse gas calculators to predict soil N2O and CH4 fluxes in tropical agriculture

Abstract

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Limits of agricultural greenhouse gas calculators to predict soil N₂O and CH₄ fluxes in tropical agriculture