Exploring the unprecedented rise in Danish burglary

TY - GEN

T1 - Exploring the unprecedented rise in Danish burglary

AU - Sorensen, David W.M.

PY - 2012/11

Y1 - 2012/11

N2 - After 18 years of relative stability, the number of residential burglaries reported to Danish police suddenly shot up by 65% between 2005 and 2009. As of 2011, burglary rates remained 30% higher than the 18-year average prior to the increase. Little solid evidence exists as to why residential burglary increased so dramatically. This paper explores four sets of possible explanations for the increase, namely: Changes in public reporting, police recording and insurance practices; changes in population age, drug use and economic recession; increasing crime tourism; and impediments policing caused by the National Police Reform of 2007. While some or all of these factors may have contributed to the overall rise, none of them come close to explaining it on their own. This absence of evidence is especially interesting in light of widespread assumptions in the media and among some police about foreign burglary gangs as the “clear and obvious” cause of the increase. The current paper concludes that crime tourists are likely to have contributed to less than 14% of the overall 65% increase in burglary between 2005 and 2009. Data are based on 234,745 residential burglaries reported to Danish police during the six-year period 2005-2010, plus data on long term crime trends (1990-2010) and other social indicators.

AB - After 18 years of relative stability, the number of residential burglaries reported to Danish police suddenly shot up by 65% between 2005 and 2009. As of 2011, burglary rates remained 30% higher than the 18-year average prior to the increase. Little solid evidence exists as to why residential burglary increased so dramatically. This paper explores four sets of possible explanations for the increase, namely: Changes in public reporting, police recording and insurance practices; changes in population age, drug use and economic recession; increasing crime tourism; and impediments policing caused by the National Police Reform of 2007. While some or all of these factors may have contributed to the overall rise, none of them come close to explaining it on their own. This absence of evidence is especially interesting in light of widespread assumptions in the media and among some police about foreign burglary gangs as the “clear and obvious” cause of the increase. The current paper concludes that crime tourists are likely to have contributed to less than 14% of the overall 65% increase in burglary between 2005 and 2009. Data are based on 234,745 residential burglaries reported to Danish police during the six-year period 2005-2010, plus data on long term crime trends (1990-2010) and other social indicators.

M3 - Report chapter

SP - 139

EP - 154

BT - NSfKs 54. forskerseminar

A2 - Bragadóttir, Ragnheiður

PB - Scandinavian Research Council for Criminology

CY - Reykjavik

ER -