Exit Polls and Voter Turnout

TY - UNPB

T1 - Exit Polls and Voter Turnout

AU - Andersen, Asger Lau

AU - Jensen, Thomas

N1 - JEL Classification: D71, D72, D82

PY - 2010

Y1 - 2010

N2 - We set up a model of elections or referendums with two alternatives to study how voter turnout and election outcomes are affected by the publication of exit polls on election day. We find that the introduction of an exit poll influences the incentive to vote both before and after the poll is published, but the signs of the effects are generally ambiguous. The fact that exit polls influence the incentive to vote before they are even published is sometimes overlooked in the debate on their desirability. We show that this can lead to premature conclusions about the impact of exit polls on election outcomes.

AB - We set up a model of elections or referendums with two alternatives to study how voter turnout and election outcomes are affected by the publication of exit polls on election day. We find that the introduction of an exit poll influences the incentive to vote both before and after the poll is published, but the signs of the effects are generally ambiguous. The fact that exit polls influence the incentive to vote before they are even published is sometimes overlooked in the debate on their desirability. We show that this can lead to premature conclusions about the impact of exit polls on election outcomes.

KW - Faculty of Social Sciences

KW - elections

KW - exit polls

KW - voter turnout

M3 - Working paper

BT - Exit Polls and Voter Turnout

PB - Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen

ER -