Abstract
Modeling the transmission of a pathogen between herds provides useful insight into how prevention and surveillance programs can be organised. We aimed to devise a technique for simulating the transfer of Salmonella (S.) Dublin between Danish dairy herds based on trading patterns and infection rates extracted from data archives. The framework for the model was a virtual hierarchy of objects residing in computer memory. The model was used to assess strategies for reducing the prevalence over a ten year period. Each object in the hierarchy was programmed to mimic a level of organization of the Danish dairy industry using data fields and logic mimicking the ecology, surveillance and control of S. Dublin. Superimposed on this was a system for simulating movement of cattle between herds and between regions accounting for the infection status of both the source and destination herds. Predictions from simulations showed that programs that enhance herd-level biosecurity (prevention of new outbreaks) and quickly resolve infections once they are detected are attractive additions to the current approach that has already resulted in substantial progress.
| Originalsprog | Engelsk |
|---|---|
| Publikationsdato | 2009 |
| Status | Udgivet - 2009 |
Emneord
- Det tidligere LIFE
- Veterinær epidemiologi
- modelling
- Salmonella Dublin