Estimation of heat-related deaths during heat wave episodes in South Korea (2006-2017)

TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimation of heat-related deaths during heat wave episodes in South Korea (2006-2017)

AU - Lim, Youn-Hee

AU - Lee, Kyung-Shin

AU - Bae, Hyun-Joo

AU - Kim, Dowoo

AU - Yoo, Hyosoon

AU - Park, Sungwoo

AU - Hong, Yun-Chul

PY - 2019/12/1

Y1 - 2019/12/1

N2 - In 2016, South Korea experienced extremely high temperatures and the Korea Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) reported 17 heat-caused deaths during these heat waves, most due to heat stroke. Because the reported number of heat-caused deaths is only part of the total deaths associated with heat waves, we aimed to estimate attributable deaths during heat wave episodes. We linked mortality to meteorological data in 16 regions in South Korea and estimated relative risk at or above threshold of maximum temperature during summer using generalized linear regression models after controlling for confounders. We computed overall, age-, sex-, and cause-specific attributable deaths from 2006 to 2017. With a 1.5% increase in all-cause mortality per 1 °C increase in concurrent days' maximum temperature during summer, this study estimates a total of 1440 all-cause deaths associated with heat waves during the 2006-2017 study period in South Korea. We estimate that 343 deaths in 2016 can be ascribed to heat waves, which is approximately 20 times more than the number reported by the KCDC (17 heat-caused deaths). This study addresses attributable heat wave deaths in South Korea and illustrates that the reports of medically classified heat-caused deaths seriously underestimate the number of deaths attributable to heat waves. Our findings may enable the implementation and reinforcement of government- and individual-level management strategies for heat waves.

AB - In 2016, South Korea experienced extremely high temperatures and the Korea Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) reported 17 heat-caused deaths during these heat waves, most due to heat stroke. Because the reported number of heat-caused deaths is only part of the total deaths associated with heat waves, we aimed to estimate attributable deaths during heat wave episodes. We linked mortality to meteorological data in 16 regions in South Korea and estimated relative risk at or above threshold of maximum temperature during summer using generalized linear regression models after controlling for confounders. We computed overall, age-, sex-, and cause-specific attributable deaths from 2006 to 2017. With a 1.5% increase in all-cause mortality per 1 °C increase in concurrent days' maximum temperature during summer, this study estimates a total of 1440 all-cause deaths associated with heat waves during the 2006-2017 study period in South Korea. We estimate that 343 deaths in 2016 can be ascribed to heat waves, which is approximately 20 times more than the number reported by the KCDC (17 heat-caused deaths). This study addresses attributable heat wave deaths in South Korea and illustrates that the reports of medically classified heat-caused deaths seriously underestimate the number of deaths attributable to heat waves. Our findings may enable the implementation and reinforcement of government- and individual-level management strategies for heat waves.

KW - Cause of Death

KW - Hot Temperature

KW - Mortality

KW - Republic of Korea

KW - Seasons

KW - Temperature

U2 - 10.1007/s00484-019-01774-2

DO - 10.1007/s00484-019-01774-2

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 31385090

SN - 0020-7128

VL - 63

SP - 1621

EP - 1629

JO - International Journal of Biometeorology

JF - International Journal of Biometeorology

IS - 12

ER -