Estimating and comparing time-dependent areas under receiver operating characteristic curves for censored event times with competing risks

TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimating and comparing time-dependent areas under receiver operating characteristic curves for censored event times with competing risks

AU - Blanche, Paul

AU - Dartigues, Jean-François

AU - Jacqmin-Gadda, Hélène

N1 - Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

PY - 2013/12/30

Y1 - 2013/12/30

N2 - The area under the time-dependent ROC curve (AUC) may be used to quantify the ability of a marker to predict the onset of a clinical outcome in the future. For survival analysis with competing risks, two alternative definitions of the specificity may be proposed depending of the way to deal with subjects who undergo the competing events. In this work, we propose nonparametric inverse probability of censoring weighting estimators of the AUC corresponding to these two definitions, and we study their asymptotic properties. We derive confidence intervals and test statistics for the equality of the AUCs obtained with two markers measured on the same subjects. A simulation study is performed to investigate the finite sample behaviour of the test and the confidence intervals. The method is applied to the French cohort PAQUID to compare the abilities of two psychometric tests to predict dementia onset in the elderly accounting for death without dementia competing risk. The 'timeROC' R package is provided to make the methodology easily usable.

AB - The area under the time-dependent ROC curve (AUC) may be used to quantify the ability of a marker to predict the onset of a clinical outcome in the future. For survival analysis with competing risks, two alternative definitions of the specificity may be proposed depending of the way to deal with subjects who undergo the competing events. In this work, we propose nonparametric inverse probability of censoring weighting estimators of the AUC corresponding to these two definitions, and we study their asymptotic properties. We derive confidence intervals and test statistics for the equality of the AUCs obtained with two markers measured on the same subjects. A simulation study is performed to investigate the finite sample behaviour of the test and the confidence intervals. The method is applied to the French cohort PAQUID to compare the abilities of two psychometric tests to predict dementia onset in the elderly accounting for death without dementia competing risk. The 'timeROC' R package is provided to make the methodology easily usable.

KW - Aged

KW - Aged, 80 and over

KW - Area Under Curve

KW - Biomarkers/analysis

KW - Computer Simulation

KW - Confidence Intervals

KW - Data Interpretation, Statistical

KW - Dementia/diagnosis

KW - France

KW - Humans

KW - Predictive Value of Tests

KW - Psychological Tests

KW - ROC Curve

U2 - 10.1002/sim.5958

DO - 10.1002/sim.5958

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 24027076

SN - 0277-6715

VL - 32

SP - 5381

EP - 5397

JO - Statistics in Medicine

JF - Statistics in Medicine

IS - 30

ER -