Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark

TY - JOUR

T1 - Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model

T2 - agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark

AU - Jensen, Trine S.

AU - Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

AU - Hasler, Berit

AU - Illerup, Jytte B.

AU - Andersen, Frits M.

PY - 2006

Y1 - 2006

N2 - Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool for evaluating the progress towards sustainable development by analysing the effects on sustainability indicators of the general economic growth and implementation of national action plans, etc. In this article an integrated model system is extended to include emissions of the greenhouse gasses, CH4 and N2O and the acidifying substance, NH3, from the Danish agricultural production. The model system comprises a macroeconomic model of the Danish economy, a Danish agricultural sector economic model, environmental satellite models of energy and waste related emissions contributing to climate change and acidification. The model extension allows the main Danish contribution to climate change and acidification to be modelled. The existing model system is extended by environmental satellite models, in which emission coefficients are linked to economic activity variables as modelled by the agricultural sector model ESMERALDA. Agricultural emission sources related to the activity variables in ESMERALDA are mapped in order to develop the environmental satellite models and the development of emission coefficients is described. Emission dependent parameters are identified in order to perform model projections. The model system is demonstrated by projections of agricultural-related emissions in Denmark under two alternative sets of assumptions: a baseline projection and a policy scenario for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector.

AB - Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool for evaluating the progress towards sustainable development by analysing the effects on sustainability indicators of the general economic growth and implementation of national action plans, etc. In this article an integrated model system is extended to include emissions of the greenhouse gasses, CH4 and N2O and the acidifying substance, NH3, from the Danish agricultural production. The model system comprises a macroeconomic model of the Danish economy, a Danish agricultural sector economic model, environmental satellite models of energy and waste related emissions contributing to climate change and acidification. The model extension allows the main Danish contribution to climate change and acidification to be modelled. The existing model system is extended by environmental satellite models, in which emission coefficients are linked to economic activity variables as modelled by the agricultural sector model ESMERALDA. Agricultural emission sources related to the activity variables in ESMERALDA are mapped in order to develop the environmental satellite models and the development of emission coefficients is described. Emission dependent parameters are identified in order to perform model projections. The model system is demonstrated by projections of agricultural-related emissions in Denmark under two alternative sets of assumptions: a baseline projection and a policy scenario for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector.

KW - Former LIFE faculty

KW - Drivhusgas

KW - Forsuring

KW - Eutrofiering

KW - Økonomiske modeller

KW - Greenhouse gas

KW - Acidification

KW - Eutrophication

KW - Economic models

U2 - 10.1016/j.jenvman.2005.12.017

DO - 10.1016/j.jenvman.2005.12.017

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 16549237

SN - 0301-4797

VL - 82

SP - 133

EP - 143

JO - Journal of Environmental Management

JF - Journal of Environmental Management

IS - 1

ER -