TY - JOUR
T1 - Dynamics of cholera outbreaks in great Lakes region of Africa, 1978-2008
AU - Nkoko, Didier Bompangue
AU - Giraudoux, Patrick
AU - Plisnier, Pierre Denis
AU - Tinda, Annie Mutombo
AU - Piarroux, Martine
AU - Sudre, Bertrand
AU - Horion, Stephanie
AU - Tamfum, Jean Jacques Muyembe
AU - Ilunga, Benoît Kebela
AU - Piarroux, Renaud
PY - 2011
Y1 - 2011
N2 - Cholera outbreaks have occurred in Burundi, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya almost every year since 1977-1978, when the disease emerged in these countries. We used a multiscale, geographic information system-based approach to assess the link between cholera outbreaks, climate, and environmental variables. We performed time-series analyses and field investigations in the main affected areas. Results showed that cholera greatly increased during El Niño warm events (abnormally warm El Niños) but decreased or remained stable between these events. Most epidemics occurred in a few hotspots in lakeside areas, where the weekly incidence of cholera varied by season, rainfall, fluctuations of plankton, and fishing activities. During lull periods, persistence of cholera was explained by outbreak dynamics, which suggested a metapopulation pattern, and by endemic foci around the lakes. These links between cholera outbreaks, climate, and lake environments need additional, multidisciplinary study.
AB - Cholera outbreaks have occurred in Burundi, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya almost every year since 1977-1978, when the disease emerged in these countries. We used a multiscale, geographic information system-based approach to assess the link between cholera outbreaks, climate, and environmental variables. We performed time-series analyses and field investigations in the main affected areas. Results showed that cholera greatly increased during El Niño warm events (abnormally warm El Niños) but decreased or remained stable between these events. Most epidemics occurred in a few hotspots in lakeside areas, where the weekly incidence of cholera varied by season, rainfall, fluctuations of plankton, and fishing activities. During lull periods, persistence of cholera was explained by outbreak dynamics, which suggested a metapopulation pattern, and by endemic foci around the lakes. These links between cholera outbreaks, climate, and lake environments need additional, multidisciplinary study.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84930483468&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3201/eid1711.110170
DO - 10.3201/eid1711.110170
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 22099090
AN - SCOPUS:84930483468
SN - 1080-6040
VL - 17
SP - 2026
EP - 2034
JO - Emerging Infectious Diseases (Print Edition)
JF - Emerging Infectious Diseases (Print Edition)
IS - 11
ER -
