TY - JOUR
T1 - Development and external validation of nomograms in oropharyngeal cancer patients with known HPV-DNA status
T2 - a European Multicentre Study (OroGrams)
AU - Grønhøj, Christian
AU - Jensen, David H
AU - Dehlendorff, Christian
AU - Marklund, Linda
AU - Wagner, Steffen
AU - Mehanna, Hisham
AU - Munck-Wikland, Eva
AU - Ramqvist, Torbjörn
AU - Näsman, Anders
AU - Wittekindt, Claus
AU - Würdemann, Nora
AU - Sharma, Shachi Jenny
AU - Gattenlöhner, Stefan
AU - Kiss, Katalin
AU - Andersen, Elo
AU - Spruce, Rachel
AU - Batis, Nikos
AU - Robinson, Max
AU - Harrington, Kevin
AU - Winter, Stuart
AU - Jones, Terence M
AU - Klussmann, Jens Peter
AU - Dalianis, Tina
AU - Friborg, Jeppe
AU - von Buchwald, Christian
PY - 2018/6/1
Y1 - 2018/6/1
N2 - BACKGROUND: The proxy marker for human papillomavirus (HPV), p16, is included in the new AJCC 8th/UICC 8th staging system, but due to incongruence between p16 status and HPV infection, single biomarker evaluation could lead to misallocation of patients. We established nomograms for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) and known HPV-DNA and p16 status, and validated the models in cohorts from high- and low-prevalent HPV countries.METHODS: Consecutive OPSCC patients treated in Denmark, 2000-2014 formed the development cohort. The validation cohorts were from Sweden, Germany, and the United Kingdom. We developed nomograms by applying a backward-selection procedure for selection of variables, and assessed model performance.RESULTS: In the development cohort, 1313 patients, and in the validation cohorts, 344 German, 503 Swedish and 463 British patients were included. For the OS nomogram, age, gender, combined HPV-DNA and p16 status, smoking, T-, N-, and M-status and UICC-8 staging were selected, and for the PFS nomogram the same variables except UICC-8 staging. The nomograms performed well in discrimination and calibration.CONCLUSIONS: Our nomograms are reliable prognostic methods in patients with OPSCC. Combining HPV DNA and p16 is essential for correct prognostication. The nomograms are available at www.orograms.org .
AB - BACKGROUND: The proxy marker for human papillomavirus (HPV), p16, is included in the new AJCC 8th/UICC 8th staging system, but due to incongruence between p16 status and HPV infection, single biomarker evaluation could lead to misallocation of patients. We established nomograms for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) and known HPV-DNA and p16 status, and validated the models in cohorts from high- and low-prevalent HPV countries.METHODS: Consecutive OPSCC patients treated in Denmark, 2000-2014 formed the development cohort. The validation cohorts were from Sweden, Germany, and the United Kingdom. We developed nomograms by applying a backward-selection procedure for selection of variables, and assessed model performance.RESULTS: In the development cohort, 1313 patients, and in the validation cohorts, 344 German, 503 Swedish and 463 British patients were included. For the OS nomogram, age, gender, combined HPV-DNA and p16 status, smoking, T-, N-, and M-status and UICC-8 staging were selected, and for the PFS nomogram the same variables except UICC-8 staging. The nomograms performed well in discrimination and calibration.CONCLUSIONS: Our nomograms are reliable prognostic methods in patients with OPSCC. Combining HPV DNA and p16 is essential for correct prognostication. The nomograms are available at www.orograms.org .
U2 - 10.1038/s41416-018-0107-9
DO - 10.1038/s41416-018-0107-9
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 29795309
SN - 0007-0920
VL - 118
SP - 1672
EP - 1681
JO - British Journal of Cancer
JF - British Journal of Cancer
IS - 12
ER -
