Climate change and developing country growth: the cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia

Thomas Channing Arndt; Paul Chinowsky; Charles Fant; Sergey Paltsev; C. Adam Schlosser; Kenneth Strzepek; Finn Tarp; James Thurlow

Climate change and developing country growth: the cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia

Thomas Channing Arndt, Paul Chinowsky, Charles Fant, Sergey Paltsev, C. Adam Schlosser, Kenneth Strzepek, Finn Tarp, James Thurlow

2 Citationer (Scopus)

Abstract

We consider the interplay of climate change impacts, global mitigation policies, and the economic interests of developing countries to 2050. Focusing on Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, we employ a structural approach to biophysical and economic modeling that incorporates climate uncertainty and allows for rigorous comparison of climate, biophysical, and economic outcomes across global mitigation regimes. We find that effective global mitigation policies generate two sources of benefit. First, less distorted climate outcomes result in typically more favorable and less variable economic outcomes. Second, successful global mitigation policies reduce global fossil fuel producer prices, relative to unconstrained emissions, providing a substantial terms of trade boost of structural fuel importers. Combined, these gains are on the order of or greater than estimates of mitigation costs. These results highlight the interests of most developing countries in effective global mitigation policies, even in the relatively near term, with much larger benefits post-2050.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Tidsskrift	Climatic Change
Vol/bind	154
Udgave nummer	3-4
ISSN	0165-0009
Status	Udgivet - 30 jun. 2019

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https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-019-02428-3

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T2 - the cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia

AU - Arndt, Thomas Channing

AU - Chinowsky, Paul

AU - Fant, Charles

AU - Paltsev, Sergey

AU - Schlosser, C. Adam

AU - Strzepek, Kenneth

AU - Tarp, Finn

AU - Thurlow, James

PY - 2019/6/30

Y1 - 2019/6/30

N2 - We consider the interplay of climate change impacts, global mitigation policies, and the economic interests of developing countries to 2050. Focusing on Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, we employ a structural approach to biophysical and economic modeling that incorporates climate uncertainty and allows for rigorous comparison of climate, biophysical, and economic outcomes across global mitigation regimes. We find that effective global mitigation policies generate two sources of benefit. First, less distorted climate outcomes result in typically more favorable and less variable economic outcomes. Second, successful global mitigation policies reduce global fossil fuel producer prices, relative to unconstrained emissions, providing a substantial terms of trade boost of structural fuel importers. Combined, these gains are on the order of or greater than estimates of mitigation costs. These results highlight the interests of most developing countries in effective global mitigation policies, even in the relatively near term, with much larger benefits post-2050.

AB - We consider the interplay of climate change impacts, global mitigation policies, and the economic interests of developing countries to 2050. Focusing on Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, we employ a structural approach to biophysical and economic modeling that incorporates climate uncertainty and allows for rigorous comparison of climate, biophysical, and economic outcomes across global mitigation regimes. We find that effective global mitigation policies generate two sources of benefit. First, less distorted climate outcomes result in typically more favorable and less variable economic outcomes. Second, successful global mitigation policies reduce global fossil fuel producer prices, relative to unconstrained emissions, providing a substantial terms of trade boost of structural fuel importers. Combined, these gains are on the order of or greater than estimates of mitigation costs. These results highlight the interests of most developing countries in effective global mitigation policies, even in the relatively near term, with much larger benefits post-2050.

M3 - Journal article

SN - 0165-0009

VL - 154

JO - Climatic Change

JF - Climatic Change

IS - 3-4

ER -

Climate change and developing country growth: the cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia

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