Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe

Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero; Jean-Baptiste Lamy; Alexis Ducousso; Brigitte Musch; François Ehrenmann; Sylvain Delzon; Stephen Cavers; Władysław Chałupka; Said Dağdaş; Jon Kehlet Hansen; Steve J. Lee; Mirko Liesebach; Hans-Martin Rau; Achilleas Psomas; Volker Schneck; Wilfried Steiner; Niklaus E. Zimmermann; Antoine Kremer

doi:10.1111/gcb.13576

Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe

Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero, Jean-Baptiste Lamy, Alexis Ducousso, Brigitte Musch, François Ehrenmann, Sylvain Delzon, Stephen Cavers, Władysław Chałupka, Said Dağdaş, Jon Kehlet Hansen, Steve J. Lee, Mirko Liesebach, Hans-Martin Rau, Achilleas Psomas, Volker Schneck, Wilfried Steiner, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Antoine Kremer

LUKKET: Skov, natur og biomasse

43 Citationer (Scopus)

52 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071–2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5-EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4-GEM2-ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will probably not show large changes in growth and survival in response to climate change.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Tidsskrift	Global Change Biology
Vol/bind	23
Udgave nummer	7
Sider (fra-til)	2831-2847
Antal sider	17
ISSN	1365-2486
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13576
Status	Udgivet - jul. 2017

Emneord

climatic change, climatic transfer distance, mixed model, Quercus petraea, survival, tree growth

Adgang til dokumentet

10.1111/gcb.13576

Adaptive_and_plastic_responses_of_Quercus_petraea_populations_to_climate_across_Europe_2017_acceptedAccepteret manuskript, 922 KB

Citationsformater

Sáenz-Romero, C., Lamy, J.-B., Ducousso, A., Musch, B., Ehrenmann, F., Delzon, S., Cavers, S., Chałupka, W., Dağdaş, S., Hansen, J. K., Lee, S. J., Liesebach, M., Rau, H.-M., Psomas, A., Schneck, V., Steiner, W., Zimmermann, N. E., & Kremer, A. (2017). Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe. Global Change Biology, 23(7), 2831-2847. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13576

Sáenz-Romero, C, Lamy, J-B, Ducousso, A, Musch, B, Ehrenmann, F, Delzon, S, Cavers, S, Chałupka, W, Dağdaş, S, Hansen, JK, Lee, SJ, Liesebach, M, Rau, H-M, Psomas, A, Schneck, V, Steiner, W, Zimmermann, NE & Kremer, A 2017, 'Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe', Global Change Biology, bind 23, nr. 7, s. 2831-2847. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13576

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title = "Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe",

abstract = "How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071–2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5-EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4-GEM2-ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Berc{\'e}, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will probably not show large changes in growth and survival in response to climate change.",

keywords = "climatic change, climatic transfer distance, mixed model, Quercus petraea, survival, tree growth",

author = "Cuauht{\'e}moc S{\'a}enz-Romero and Jean-Baptiste Lamy and Alexis Ducousso and Brigitte Musch and Fran{\c c}ois Ehrenmann and Sylvain Delzon and Stephen Cavers and W{\l}adys{\l}aw Cha{\l}upka and Said Dağda{\c s} and Hansen, {Jon Kehlet} and Lee, {Steve J.} and Mirko Liesebach and Hans-Martin Rau and Achilleas Psomas and Volker Schneck and Wilfried Steiner and Zimmermann, {Niklaus E.} and Antoine Kremer",

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doi = "10.1111/gcb.13576",

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T1 - Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe

AU - Sáenz-Romero, Cuauhtémoc

AU - Lamy, Jean-Baptiste

AU - Ducousso, Alexis

AU - Musch, Brigitte

AU - Ehrenmann, François

AU - Delzon, Sylvain

AU - Cavers, Stephen

AU - Chałupka, Władysław

AU - Dağdaş, Said

AU - Hansen, Jon Kehlet

AU - Lee, Steve J.

AU - Liesebach, Mirko

AU - Rau, Hans-Martin

AU - Psomas, Achilleas

AU - Schneck, Volker

AU - Steiner, Wilfried

AU - Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

AU - Kremer, Antoine

PY - 2017/7

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N2 - How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071–2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5-EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4-GEM2-ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will probably not show large changes in growth and survival in response to climate change.

AB - How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071–2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5-EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4-GEM2-ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will probably not show large changes in growth and survival in response to climate change.

KW - climatic change, climatic transfer distance, mixed model, Quercus petraea, survival, tree growth

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DO - 10.1111/gcb.13576

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