TY - JOUR
T1 - A Prediction Rule for Risk Stratification of Incidentally Discovered Gallstones
T2 - Results From a Large Cohort Study
AU - Shabanzadeh, Daniel Mønsted
AU - Sørensen, Lars Tue
AU - Jørgensen, Torben
N1 - Copyright © 2016 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
PY - 2016/1/1
Y1 - 2016/1/1
N2 - BACKGROUND & AIMS: No one knows exactly what proportion of gallstones cause clinical events among subjects unaware of their gallstone status. We investigated the long-term occurrence of clinical events of gallstones and associations between ultrasound observations and clinical events.METHODS: We analyzed data from 3 randomly selected groups in the general population of urban Copenhagen (age, 30-70 y) participating in an international study of cardiovascular risk factors (the Multinational mONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease study). In this study, participants (n = 6037) were examined from 1982 through 1994, and underwent abdominal ultrasound examinations to detect gallstones. Our study population comprised 664 subjects with gallstones; subjects were not informed of their gallstone status. Participants were followed up for clinical events through central registers until December 31, 2011. Independent variables included ultrasound characteristics, age, sex, comorbidity, and female-associated factors, which were analyzed using Cox regression.RESULTS: Study participants were followed up for a median of 17.4 years (range, 0.1-29.1 y); 99.7% of participants completed the study. A total of 19.6% participants developed events (8.0% complicated and 11.6% uncomplicated). Ten percent had awareness of their gallstones; awareness was associated with uncomplicated and complicated events. Stones larger than 10 mm were associated with all events (hazard ratio [HR], 2.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.45-3.69), acute cholecystitis (HR, 9.49; 95% CI, 2.05-43.92), and uncomplicated events (HR, 2.55; 95% CI, 1.38-4.71), including cholecystectomy (HR, 2.69; 95% CI, 1.29-5.60). Multiple stones were associated with all events (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.00-2.81), complicated events (HR, 2.52; 95% CI, 1.05-6.04), and common bile duct stones (HR, 11.83; 95% CI, 1.54-91). There was an association between gallstones more than 5 years old and acute cholecystitis. Female sex was associated with all and uncomplicated events. We found a negative association between participant age and all events, uncomplicated events, and acute cholecystitis. Comorbidities and female-associated factors (intake of birth control pills or estrogens and number of births) were not associated with events. Compared with men with a single stone of 10 mm or smaller (reference), women with multiple stones greater than 10 mm had the highest risk for events (HR, 11.05; 95% CI, 3.76-32.44; unadjusted absolute risk, 0.0235 events/person-years).CONCLUSIONS: Fewer than 20% of subjects with gallstones develop clinical events. Larger, multiple, and older gallstones are associated with events. Further studies are needed to confirm the prediction rules.
AB - BACKGROUND & AIMS: No one knows exactly what proportion of gallstones cause clinical events among subjects unaware of their gallstone status. We investigated the long-term occurrence of clinical events of gallstones and associations between ultrasound observations and clinical events.METHODS: We analyzed data from 3 randomly selected groups in the general population of urban Copenhagen (age, 30-70 y) participating in an international study of cardiovascular risk factors (the Multinational mONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease study). In this study, participants (n = 6037) were examined from 1982 through 1994, and underwent abdominal ultrasound examinations to detect gallstones. Our study population comprised 664 subjects with gallstones; subjects were not informed of their gallstone status. Participants were followed up for clinical events through central registers until December 31, 2011. Independent variables included ultrasound characteristics, age, sex, comorbidity, and female-associated factors, which were analyzed using Cox regression.RESULTS: Study participants were followed up for a median of 17.4 years (range, 0.1-29.1 y); 99.7% of participants completed the study. A total of 19.6% participants developed events (8.0% complicated and 11.6% uncomplicated). Ten percent had awareness of their gallstones; awareness was associated with uncomplicated and complicated events. Stones larger than 10 mm were associated with all events (hazard ratio [HR], 2.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.45-3.69), acute cholecystitis (HR, 9.49; 95% CI, 2.05-43.92), and uncomplicated events (HR, 2.55; 95% CI, 1.38-4.71), including cholecystectomy (HR, 2.69; 95% CI, 1.29-5.60). Multiple stones were associated with all events (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.00-2.81), complicated events (HR, 2.52; 95% CI, 1.05-6.04), and common bile duct stones (HR, 11.83; 95% CI, 1.54-91). There was an association between gallstones more than 5 years old and acute cholecystitis. Female sex was associated with all and uncomplicated events. We found a negative association between participant age and all events, uncomplicated events, and acute cholecystitis. Comorbidities and female-associated factors (intake of birth control pills or estrogens and number of births) were not associated with events. Compared with men with a single stone of 10 mm or smaller (reference), women with multiple stones greater than 10 mm had the highest risk for events (HR, 11.05; 95% CI, 3.76-32.44; unadjusted absolute risk, 0.0235 events/person-years).CONCLUSIONS: Fewer than 20% of subjects with gallstones develop clinical events. Larger, multiple, and older gallstones are associated with events. Further studies are needed to confirm the prediction rules.
KW - Adult
KW - Age Distribution
KW - Aged
KW - Cholecystectomy
KW - Cohort Studies
KW - Decision Support Techniques
KW - Denmark
KW - Female
KW - Follow-Up Studies
KW - Gallstones
KW - Humans
KW - Incidence
KW - Incidental Findings
KW - Longitudinal Studies
KW - Male
KW - Middle Aged
KW - Predictive Value of Tests
KW - Proportional Hazards Models
KW - Risk Assessment
KW - Severity of Illness Index
KW - Sex Distribution
KW - Treatment Outcome
KW - Ultrasonography, Doppler
KW - Urban Population
KW - Comparative Study
KW - Journal Article
KW - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
U2 - 10.1053/j.gastro.2015.09.002
DO - 10.1053/j.gastro.2015.09.002
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 26375367
SN - 0016-5085
VL - 150
SP - 156-167.e1
JO - Gastroenterology
JF - Gastroenterology
IS - 1
ER -
