TY - JOUR
T1 - A Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival of TNM 8th Edition Stage I Non-small-cell Lung Cancer
AU - Zeng, Yuan
AU - Mayne, Nicholas
AU - Yang, Chi Fu Jeffrey
AU - D’Amico, Thomas A.
AU - Ng, Calvin S.H.
AU - Liu, Chia chuan
AU - Petersen, René Horsleben
AU - Rocco, Gaetano
AU - Brunelli, Alessandro
AU - Liu, Jun
AU - Liu, Yang
AU - Huang, Weizhe
AU - He, Jiaxi
AU - Wang, Wei
AU - Jiang, Long
AU - Cui, Fei
AU - Wang, Wenjun
AU - Liang, Wenhua
AU - He, Jianxing
AU - the AME Thoracic Surgery Collaborative Group
PY - 2019/7
Y1 - 2019/7
N2 - Background. Models for predicting the survival outcomes of stage I non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) defined by the newly released 8th edition TNM staging system are scarce. This study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of these patients and identifying individuals with a higher risk for CSS. Methods. A total of 30,475 NSCLC cases were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We identified and integrated the risk factors to build a nomogram. The model was subjected to bootstrap internal validation with the SEER database, and external validation with a multicenter cohort of 1133 patients from China. The difference in the impact of adjuvant chemotherapy on model-defined high-and lowrisk patients was examined using the National Cancer Database (NCDB). Results. Eight independent prognostic factors were identified and integrated into the model. The calibration curves showed good agreement. The concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram was higher than that of the staging system (IA1, IA2, IA3, and IB) (internal validation set 0.63 vs. 0.56; external validation set 0.66 vs. 0.55; both p *lt; 0.01). Specifically, 21.7% of stage IB patients (7.5% of all stage I) were categorized into the high-risk group (score[30). There was a significant interaction effect between the adjuvant chemotherapy and risk groups in the NCDB cohort (p = 0.003). Conclusions. We established a practical nomogram to predict CSS for 8th edition stage I NSCLC. A prospective study is warranted to determine its role in identifying adjuvant chemotherapy candidates.
AB - Background. Models for predicting the survival outcomes of stage I non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) defined by the newly released 8th edition TNM staging system are scarce. This study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of these patients and identifying individuals with a higher risk for CSS. Methods. A total of 30,475 NSCLC cases were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We identified and integrated the risk factors to build a nomogram. The model was subjected to bootstrap internal validation with the SEER database, and external validation with a multicenter cohort of 1133 patients from China. The difference in the impact of adjuvant chemotherapy on model-defined high-and lowrisk patients was examined using the National Cancer Database (NCDB). Results. Eight independent prognostic factors were identified and integrated into the model. The calibration curves showed good agreement. The concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram was higher than that of the staging system (IA1, IA2, IA3, and IB) (internal validation set 0.63 vs. 0.56; external validation set 0.66 vs. 0.55; both p *lt; 0.01). Specifically, 21.7% of stage IB patients (7.5% of all stage I) were categorized into the high-risk group (score[30). There was a significant interaction effect between the adjuvant chemotherapy and risk groups in the NCDB cohort (p = 0.003). Conclusions. We established a practical nomogram to predict CSS for 8th edition stage I NSCLC. A prospective study is warranted to determine its role in identifying adjuvant chemotherapy candidates.
U2 - 10.1245/s10434-019-07318-7
DO - 10.1245/s10434-019-07318-7
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 30900105
AN - SCOPUS:85063214431
SN - 1068-9265
VL - 26
SP - 2053
EP - 2062
JO - Annals of Surgical Oncology
JF - Annals of Surgical Oncology
IS - 7
ER -
