21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe

R. Engler; C. F. Randin; W. Thuiller; S. Dullinger; N. E. Zimmermann; Miguel Bastos Araujo; P. B. Pearman; G. Le Lay; C. Piedallu; C. H. Albert; P. Choler; G. Coldea; X. de Lamo; T. Dirnböck; J-C. Gégout; D. Gómez-Garcia; J. Grytnes; E. Heegaard; F. Høistad; David Bravo Nogues; S. Normand; M. Puscas; M-T. Sebastià; A. Stanisci; J-P. Theurillat; M. Trivedi; P. Vittoz; A. Guisan

doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02393.x

21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe

R. Engler, C. F. Randin, W. Thuiller, S. Dullinger, N. E. Zimmermann, Miguel Bastos Araujo, P. B. Pearman, G. Le Lay, C. Piedallu, C. H. Albert, P. Choler, G. Coldea, X. de Lamo, T. Dirnböck, J-C. Gégout, D. Gómez-Garcia, J. Grytnes, E. Heegaard, F. Høistad, David Bravo NoguesS. Normand, M. Puscas, M-T. Sebastià, A. Stanisci, J-P. Theurillat, M. Trivedi, P. Vittoz, A. Guisan

Ecology and Evolution

372 Citationer (Scopus)

Abstract

Continental-scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill-suited for assessment of species-specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high-resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36–55% of alpine species, 31–51% of subalpine species and 19–46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat by 2070–2100. While our high-resolution analyses consistently indicate marked levels of threat to cold-adapted mountain florae across Europe, they also reveal unequal distribution of this threat across the various mountain ranges. Impacts on florae from regions projected to undergo increased warming accompanied by decreased precipitation, such as the Pyrenees and the Eastern Austrian Alps, will likely be greater than on florae in regions where the increase in temperature is less pronounced and rainfall increases concomitantly, such as in the Norwegian Scandes and the Scottish Highlands. This suggests that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Tidsskrift	Global Change Biology
Vol/bind	17
Udgave nummer	7
Sider (fra-til)	2330-2341
Antal sider	12
ISSN	1354-1013
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02393.x
Status	Udgivet - jul. 2011

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Engler, R., Randin, C. F., Thuiller, W., Dullinger, S., Zimmermann, N. E., Bastos Araujo, M., Pearman, P. B., Le Lay, G., Piedallu, C., Albert, C. H., Choler, P., Coldea, G., de Lamo, X., Dirnböck, T., Gégout, J-C., Gómez-Garcia, D., Grytnes, J., Heegaard, E., Høistad, F., ... Guisan, A. (2011). 21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe. Global Change Biology, 17(7), 2330-2341. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02393.x

Engler, R, Randin, CF, Thuiller, W, Dullinger, S, Zimmermann, NE, Bastos Araujo, M, Pearman, PB, Le Lay, G, Piedallu, C, Albert, CH, Choler, P, Coldea, G, de Lamo, X, Dirnböck, T, Gégout, J-C, Gómez-Garcia, D, Grytnes, J, Heegaard, E, Høistad, F, Nogues, DB, Normand, S, Puscas, M, Sebastià, M-T, Stanisci, A, Theurillat, J-P, Trivedi, M, Vittoz, P & Guisan, A 2011, '21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe', Global Change Biology, bind 17, nr. 7, s. 2330-2341. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02393.x

@article{dfc2fa0b0f274707ac942ef960a3892d,

title = "21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe",

abstract = "Continental-scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill-suited for assessment of species-specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high-resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36–55% of alpine species, 31–51% of subalpine species and 19–46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat by 2070–2100. While our high-resolution analyses consistently indicate marked levels of threat to cold-adapted mountain florae across Europe, they also reveal unequal distribution of this threat across the various mountain ranges. Impacts on florae from regions projected to undergo increased warming accompanied by decreased precipitation, such as the Pyrenees and the Eastern Austrian Alps, will likely be greater than on florae in regions where the increase in temperature is less pronounced and rainfall increases concomitantly, such as in the Norwegian Scandes and the Scottish Highlands. This suggests that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation. ",

author = "R. Engler and Randin, {C. F.} and W. Thuiller and S. Dullinger and Zimmermann, {N. E.} and {Bastos Araujo}, Miguel and Pearman, {P. B.} and {Le Lay}, G. and C. Piedallu and Albert, {C. H.} and P. Choler and G. Coldea and {de Lamo}, X. and T. Dirnb{\"o}ck and J-C. G{\'e}gout and D. G{\'o}mez-Garcia and J. Grytnes and E. Heegaard and F. H{\o}istad and Nogues, {David Bravo} and S. Normand and M. Puscas and M-T. Sebasti{\`a} and A. Stanisci and J-P. Theurillat and M. Trivedi and P. Vittoz and A. Guisan",

year = "2011",

month = jul,

doi = "10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02393.x",

language = "English",

volume = "17",

pages = "2330--2341",

journal = "Global Change Biology",

issn = "1354-1013",

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T1 - 21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe

AU - Engler, R.

AU - Randin, C. F.

AU - Thuiller, W.

AU - Dullinger, S.

AU - Zimmermann, N. E.

AU - Bastos Araujo, Miguel

AU - Pearman, P. B.

AU - Le Lay, G.

AU - Piedallu, C.

AU - Albert, C. H.

AU - Choler, P.

AU - Coldea, G.

AU - de Lamo, X.

AU - Dirnböck, T.

AU - Gégout, J-C.

AU - Gómez-Garcia, D.

AU - Grytnes, J.

AU - Heegaard, E.

AU - Høistad, F.

AU - Nogues, David Bravo

AU - Normand, S.

AU - Puscas, M.

AU - Sebastià, M-T.

AU - Stanisci, A.

AU - Theurillat, J-P.

AU - Trivedi, M.

AU - Vittoz, P.

AU - Guisan, A.

PY - 2011/7

Y1 - 2011/7

N2 - Continental-scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill-suited for assessment of species-specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high-resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36–55% of alpine species, 31–51% of subalpine species and 19–46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat by 2070–2100. While our high-resolution analyses consistently indicate marked levels of threat to cold-adapted mountain florae across Europe, they also reveal unequal distribution of this threat across the various mountain ranges. Impacts on florae from regions projected to undergo increased warming accompanied by decreased precipitation, such as the Pyrenees and the Eastern Austrian Alps, will likely be greater than on florae in regions where the increase in temperature is less pronounced and rainfall increases concomitantly, such as in the Norwegian Scandes and the Scottish Highlands. This suggests that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation.

AB - Continental-scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill-suited for assessment of species-specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high-resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36–55% of alpine species, 31–51% of subalpine species and 19–46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat by 2070–2100. While our high-resolution analyses consistently indicate marked levels of threat to cold-adapted mountain florae across Europe, they also reveal unequal distribution of this threat across the various mountain ranges. Impacts on florae from regions projected to undergo increased warming accompanied by decreased precipitation, such as the Pyrenees and the Eastern Austrian Alps, will likely be greater than on florae in regions where the increase in temperature is less pronounced and rainfall increases concomitantly, such as in the Norwegian Scandes and the Scottish Highlands. This suggests that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation.

U2 - 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02393.x

DO - 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02393.x

M3 - Journal article

SN - 1354-1013

VL - 17

SP - 2330

EP - 2341

JO - Global Change Biology

JF - Global Change Biology

IS - 7

ER -

21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe

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