Beskrivelse
Danes go to the polls on Thursday, with prime minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt's centre-Left government running neck and neck with Right-wing opposition.A month after the Finnish election brought in eurosceptic Timo Soini as foreign minister, another Nordic election could this week deliver David Cameron an ally in his plans to renegotiate Britain’s position in the European Union.
Denmark’s right-wing opposition parties, which have 50.6 per cent of the vote in the latest poll of polls, have committed to backing Britain, while the centre-left government parties, on 49.4 per cent, are more wary of rocking the boat in Europe.
But scratch the surface and it’s a little bit more complicated...
What does Denmark’s Right-wing say about backing Britain?
Denmark’s opposition this month struck a formal four-party agreement in which they pledged to “back up the British government’s efforts negotiate a new scheme for Britain in the European Union”.
The deal committed the four parties to assembling “an alliance of like-minded EU countries, such as Britain, the Netherlands, Germany, Austria and Finland to together work to ensure that the EU does not develop in the direction of a ‘social union".
It also committed them to lobby to “review the EU rules on welfare benefits to migrant labour” so that migrants from other European Union countries would have to work for a period before qualifying for benefits.
What about the centre-Left?
The Social Democrat-led government of Helle Thorning-Schmidt has committed itself to doing everything possible to keep Britain in the European Union, but has said that “treaty change” would be a “red line” in any negotiations. It has also insisted that any solutions found for Britain should be “non-discriminatory” between member states.
Like the Right-wing parties, the government also supports reforms to how soon workers moving between EU countries are able to access benefits.
So what will happen if the Right-wing gets in after June 18?
If the Danish People’s Party is drawn into a coalition government for the first time, there is almost no level of backing David Cameron could not expect.
“If they actually enter into coalition government, then they will seek to extract an enormous price from their coalition partners,” Ian Manners, professor of politics at Copenhagen University, argues.
He believes they would demand backing for treaty change in Europe, and could even ask for a UK-style in-out referendum on EU membership.
Both would be painful concessions for the traditionally pro-European Liberal Party.
“I find it hard to believe that it’s possible to make amendments to the treaty, and I don’t think that’s absolutely necessary,” Lars Lokke Rasmussen, Liberal leader and a candidate for prime minister, said this week, adopting a position little different from that of the Social Democrats. “Treaty change we know from history is not very easy in reality.”
The Liberals could be forced to make concessions on treaty change even if the Danish People’s Party remains outside government, however.
Even without pressure from the eurosceptic party, the Liberals, like the Social Democrats, would back Britain’s push to reform benefits in the European Union.
“We look eye to eye on certain areas,” Mr Lokke Rasmussen said, saying he aimed to “influence the upcoming European discussion about this balance between the freedom to move and the freedom to claim.”
And what will happen if the Left-wing holds on to power after June 18?
This might be less of a disappointment than some expect.
Helle Thorning-Schmidt is naturally pro-European, but she’s also a highly pragmatic politician who, despite being married to Neil Kinnock’s son, has a good personal relationship with David Cameron.
Mr Manners argues that the Danish People’s Party’s decision to make Britain’s Europe negotiation an election issue could cause the Social Democrats to shift ground even if they win, particularly if they need to do deals with the Right to govern.
“If past Danish politics is anything to go by, this will probably have an effect on the Left even if they get back in,” he said.
He believes Denmark will to some extent be an ally no matter what.
“Diplomatically they very much like to see themselves as part of the northern European pragmatist countries, and look to UK, the Netherlands and Sweden. Any prime minister will strike that balance.”
| Periode | 17 jun. 2015 |
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