Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context

Amanda Palazzo; Joost M. Vervoort; Daniel Mason-D'Croz; Lucas Rutting; Petr  Havlik; Shahnila Islam; Jules Bayala; Hugo Valin; Hamé Abdou Kadi Kadi; Philip K. Thornton; Robert Zougmore

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.12.002

Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context

Amanda Palazzo^*, Joost M. Vervoort, Daniel Mason-D'Croz, Lucas Rutting, Petr Havlik, Shahnila Islam, Jules Bayala, Hugo Valin, Hamé Abdou Kadi Kadi, Philip K. Thornton, Robert Zougmore

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences

51 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise.In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change.In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region's imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts.

Original language	English
Journal	Global Environmental Change
Volume	45
Pages (from-to)	227-242
Number of pages	16
ISSN	0959-3780
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.12.002
Publication status	Published - Jul 2017

Keywords

Agriculture
Climate change
Representative agricultural pathways
Shared socioeconomic pathways
Stakeholders
West Africa

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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1-s2.0-S0959378016305751-mainFinal published version, 2.11 MBLicence: CC BY

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Palazzo, A., Vervoort, J. M., Mason-D'Croz, D., Rutting, L., Havlik, P., Islam, S., Bayala, J., Valin, H., Kadi Kadi, H. A., Thornton, P. K., & Zougmore, R. (2017). Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context. Global Environmental Change, 45, 227-242. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.12.002

Palazzo, A, Vervoort, JM, Mason-D'Croz, D, Rutting, L, Havlik, P, Islam, S, Bayala, J, Valin, H, Kadi Kadi, HA, Thornton, PK & Zougmore, R 2017, 'Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context', Global Environmental Change, vol. 45, pp. 227-242. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.12.002

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abstract = "The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise.In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change.In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region's imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts.",

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AU - Islam, Shahnila

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AB - The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise.In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change.In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region's imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts.

KW - Agriculture

KW - Climate change

KW - Representative agricultural pathways

KW - Shared socioeconomic pathways

KW - Stakeholders

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Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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