Explicit representation of confidence informs future value-based decisions

Tomas Folke; Catrine Jacobsen; Stephen M. Fleming; Benedetto  De Martino

doi:10.1038/s41562-016-0002

Explicit representation of confidence informs future value-based decisions

Tomas Folke, Catrine Jacobsen, Stephen M. Fleming, Benedetto De Martino

Section for Environment and Natural Resources

35 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Humans can reflect on decisions and report variable levels of confidence. But why maintain an explicit representation of confidence for choices that have already been made and therefore cannot be undone? Here we show that an explicit representation of confidence is harnessed for subsequent changes of mind. Specifically, when confidence is low, participants are more likely to change their minds when the same choice is presented again, an effect that is most pronounced in participants with greater fidelity in their confidence reports. Furthermore, we show that choices reported with high confidence follow a more consistent pattern (fewer transitivity violations). Finally, by tracking participants’ eye movements, we demonstrate that lower-level gaze dynamics can track uncertainty but do not directly impact changes of mind. These results suggest that an explicit and accurate representation of confidence has a positive impact on the quality of future value-based decisions.

Original language	English
Article number	0002
Journal	Nature Human Behaviour
Volume	1
Number of pages	8
ISSN	2397-3374
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-016-0002
Publication status	Published - 10 Jan 2017

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title = "Explicit representation of confidence informs future value-based decisions",

abstract = "Humans can reflect on decisions and report variable levels of confidence. But why maintain an explicit representation of confidence for choices that have already been made and therefore cannot be undone? Here we show that an explicit representation of confidence is harnessed for subsequent changes of mind. Specifically, when confidence is low, participants are more likely to change their minds when the same choice is presented again, an effect that is most pronounced in participants with greater fidelity in their confidence reports. Furthermore, we show that choices reported with high confidence follow a more consistent pattern (fewer transitivity violations). Finally, by tracking participants{\textquoteright} eye movements, we demonstrate that lower-level gaze dynamics can track uncertainty but do not directly impact changes of mind. These results suggest that an explicit and accurate representation of confidence has a positive impact on the quality of future value-based decisions.",

author = "Tomas Folke and Catrine Jacobsen and Fleming, {Stephen M.} and {De Martino}, Benedetto",

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AU - Folke, Tomas

AU - Jacobsen, Catrine

AU - Fleming, Stephen M.

AU - De Martino, Benedetto

PY - 2017/1/10

Y1 - 2017/1/10

N2 - Humans can reflect on decisions and report variable levels of confidence. But why maintain an explicit representation of confidence for choices that have already been made and therefore cannot be undone? Here we show that an explicit representation of confidence is harnessed for subsequent changes of mind. Specifically, when confidence is low, participants are more likely to change their minds when the same choice is presented again, an effect that is most pronounced in participants with greater fidelity in their confidence reports. Furthermore, we show that choices reported with high confidence follow a more consistent pattern (fewer transitivity violations). Finally, by tracking participants’ eye movements, we demonstrate that lower-level gaze dynamics can track uncertainty but do not directly impact changes of mind. These results suggest that an explicit and accurate representation of confidence has a positive impact on the quality of future value-based decisions.

AB - Humans can reflect on decisions and report variable levels of confidence. But why maintain an explicit representation of confidence for choices that have already been made and therefore cannot be undone? Here we show that an explicit representation of confidence is harnessed for subsequent changes of mind. Specifically, when confidence is low, participants are more likely to change their minds when the same choice is presented again, an effect that is most pronounced in participants with greater fidelity in their confidence reports. Furthermore, we show that choices reported with high confidence follow a more consistent pattern (fewer transitivity violations). Finally, by tracking participants’ eye movements, we demonstrate that lower-level gaze dynamics can track uncertainty but do not directly impact changes of mind. These results suggest that an explicit and accurate representation of confidence has a positive impact on the quality of future value-based decisions.

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VL - 1

JO - Nature Human Behaviour

JF - Nature Human Behaviour

M1 - 0002

ER -

Explicit representation of confidence informs future value-based decisions

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