The value of reliability

TY - JOUR

T1 - The value of reliability

AU - Fosgerau, Mogens

AU - Karlström, Anders

PY - 2010/1

Y1 - 2010/1

N2 - We derive the value of reliability in the scheduling of an activity of random duration, such as travel under congested conditions. Using a simple formulation of scheduling utility, we show that the maximal expected utility is linear in the mean and standard deviation of trip duration, regardless of the form of the standardised distribution of trip durations. This insight provides a unification of the scheduling model and models that include the standard deviation of trip duration directly as an argument in the cost or utility function. The results generalise approximately to the case where the mean and standard deviation of trip duration depend on the starting time. An empirical illustration is provided.

AB - We derive the value of reliability in the scheduling of an activity of random duration, such as travel under congested conditions. Using a simple formulation of scheduling utility, we show that the maximal expected utility is linear in the mean and standard deviation of trip duration, regardless of the form of the standardised distribution of trip durations. This insight provides a unification of the scheduling model and models that include the standard deviation of trip duration directly as an argument in the cost or utility function. The results generalise approximately to the case where the mean and standard deviation of trip duration depend on the starting time. An empirical illustration is provided.

KW - Random duration

KW - Reliability

KW - Scheduling

KW - Time

KW - Variability

KW - Welfare

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=71549139119&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.trb.2009.05.002

DO - 10.1016/j.trb.2009.05.002

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:71549139119

SN - 0191-2615

VL - 44

SP - 38

EP - 49

JO - Transportation Research. Part B: Methodological

JF - Transportation Research. Part B: Methodological

IS - 1

ER -