The Simpson's paradox unraveled

Miguel A Hernán; David Clayton; Niels Keiding

doi:10.1093/ije/dyr041

The Simpson's paradox unraveled

Miguel A Hernán, David Clayton, Niels Keiding

90 Citationer (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: In a famous article, Simpson described a hypothetical data example that led to apparently paradoxical results. Methods: We make the causal structure of Simpson's example explicit. Results: We show how the paradox disappears when the statistical analysis is appropriately guided by subject-matter knowledge. We also review previous explanations of Simpson's paradox that attributed it to two distinct phenomena: confounding and non-collapsibility. Conclusion: Analytical errors may occur when the problem is stripped of its causal context and analyzed merely in statistical terms. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Originalsprog	Dansk
Tidsskrift	International Journal of Epidemiology
Vol/bind	40
Udgave nummer	3
Sider (fra-til)	780-785
Antal sider	6
ISSN	0300-5771
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyr041
Status	Udgivet - jun. 2011

Adgang til dokumentet

10.1093/ije/dyr041

Citationsformater

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AU - Clayton, David

AU - Keiding, Niels

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AB - Background: In a famous article, Simpson described a hypothetical data example that led to apparently paradoxical results. Methods: We make the causal structure of Simpson's example explicit. Results: We show how the paradox disappears when the statistical analysis is appropriately guided by subject-matter knowledge. We also review previous explanations of Simpson's paradox that attributed it to two distinct phenomena: confounding and non-collapsibility. Conclusion: Analytical errors may occur when the problem is stripped of its causal context and analyzed merely in statistical terms. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

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DO - 10.1093/ije/dyr041

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