Quantifying the effects of climate change and land use change on water resources in Denmark using an integrated watershed model

TY - JOUR

T1 - Quantifying the effects of climate change and land use change on water resources in Denmark using an integrated watershed model

AU - Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G

AU - Sonnenborg, Torben

AU - Jensen, Karsten Høgh

PY - 2009

Y1 - 2009

N2 - This paper presents a quantitative comparison of plausible climate and land use change impacts on the hydrology of a large-scale agricultural catchment. An integrated, distributed hydrological model was used to simulate changes in the groundwater system and its discharge to rivers and drains for two climate scenarios (2071-2100). Annual groundwater recharge increased significantly (especially the B2 scenario), giving higher groundwater heads and stream discharges and amplifying the seasonal dynamics significantly. Owing to drier summers, irrigation volumes increased by up to 90% compared to current values. Changing the land use from grass to forest had a minor effect on groundwater recharge, whereas CO2 effects on transpiration resulted in a relatively large increase in recharge. This study has shown that climate change has the most substantial effect on the hydrology in this catchment, whereas other factors such as irrigation, CO2 effects on transpiration, and land use changes affect the water balance to a lesser extent.

AB - This paper presents a quantitative comparison of plausible climate and land use change impacts on the hydrology of a large-scale agricultural catchment. An integrated, distributed hydrological model was used to simulate changes in the groundwater system and its discharge to rivers and drains for two climate scenarios (2071-2100). Annual groundwater recharge increased significantly (especially the B2 scenario), giving higher groundwater heads and stream discharges and amplifying the seasonal dynamics significantly. Owing to drier summers, irrigation volumes increased by up to 90% compared to current values. Changing the land use from grass to forest had a minor effect on groundwater recharge, whereas CO2 effects on transpiration resulted in a relatively large increase in recharge. This study has shown that climate change has the most substantial effect on the hydrology in this catchment, whereas other factors such as irrigation, CO2 effects on transpiration, and land use changes affect the water balance to a lesser extent.

U2 - 10.1029/2007WR006760

DO - 10.1029/2007WR006760

M3 - Journal article

SN - 0043-1397

VL - 45

JO - Water Resources Research

JF - Water Resources Research

IS - W00A15

ER -