Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe

TY - JOUR

T1 - Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe

AU - Lenoir, Jonathan

AU - Graae, Bente

AU - Aarrestad, Per

AU - Alsos, Inger

AU - Armbruster, W

AU - Austrheim, Gunnar

AU - Bergendorff, Claes

AU - Birks, H

AU - Bråthen, Kari

AU - Brunet, Jörg

AU - Bruun, Hans Henrik

AU - Dahlberg, Carl

AU - Decocq, Guillaume

AU - Diekmann, Martin

AU - Dynesius, Mats

AU - Ejrnaes, Rasmus

AU - Grytnes, John-Arvid

AU - Hylander, Kristoffer

AU - Klanderud, Kari

AU - Luoto, Miska

AU - Milbau, Ann

AU - Moora, Mari

AU - Nygaard, Bettina

AU - Odland, Arvid

AU - Ravolainen, Virve

AU - Reinhardt, Stefanie

AU - Sandvik, Sylvi

AU - Schei, Fride

AU - Speed, James

AU - Tveraabak, Liv

AU - Vandvik, Vigdis

AU - Velle, Liv

AU - Virtanen, Risto

AU - Zobel, Martin

AU - Svenning, Jens-Christian

PY - 2013/5

Y1 - 2013/5

N2 - Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km2) suggest that fine-grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate-change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000-m2 units (community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1-km2 units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1-km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100-km2 units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46-72% of variation in LmT and 92-96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km2 units peaked at 60-65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography-related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing-season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing-season CiT within 100-km2 units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km-1) than spatial turnover in growing-season GiT (0.18 °C km-1). We conclude that thermal variability within 1-km2 units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.

AB - Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km2) suggest that fine-grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate-change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000-m2 units (community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1-km2 units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1-km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100-km2 units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46-72% of variation in LmT and 92-96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km2 units peaked at 60-65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography-related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing-season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing-season CiT within 100-km2 units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km-1) than spatial turnover in growing-season GiT (0.18 °C km-1). We conclude that thermal variability within 1-km2 units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.

U2 - 10.1111/gcb.12129

DO - 10.1111/gcb.12129

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 23504984

SN - 1354-1013

VL - 19

SP - 1470

EP - 1481

JO - Global Change Biology

JF - Global Change Biology

IS - 5

ER -