TY - JOUR
T1 - Error diagrams and temporal correlations in a fracture model with characteristic and power-law distributed avalanches
AU - Moreno, Y.
AU - Vázquez-Prada, M.
AU - Pacheco, A.F.
AU - Gómez, J.B.
AU - Vazquez-Prada Baillet, Miguel
PY - 2003/8/1
Y1 - 2003/8/1
N2 - Forecasting failure events is one of the most important problems in fracture mechanics and related sciences. In this paper, we use the Molchan scheme to investigate the error diagrams in a fracture model which has the notable advantage of displaying two completely different regimes according to the heterogeneity of the system. In one regime, a characteristic event is observed while for the second regime a power-law spectrum of avalanches is obtained reminiscent of self-organized criticality. We find that both regimes are different when predicting large avalanches and that, in the second regime, there are non-trivial temporal correlations associated to clustering of large events. Finally, we extend the discussion to seismology, where both kinds of avalanche size distributions can be seen.
AB - Forecasting failure events is one of the most important problems in fracture mechanics and related sciences. In this paper, we use the Molchan scheme to investigate the error diagrams in a fracture model which has the notable advantage of displaying two completely different regimes according to the heterogeneity of the system. In one regime, a characteristic event is observed while for the second regime a power-law spectrum of avalanches is obtained reminiscent of self-organized criticality. We find that both regimes are different when predicting large avalanches and that, in the second regime, there are non-trivial temporal correlations associated to clustering of large events. Finally, we extend the discussion to seismology, where both kinds of avalanche size distributions can be seen.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=23944482932&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1140/epjb/e2003-00248-6
DO - 10.1140/epjb/e2003-00248-6
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:23944482932
SN - 1434-6028
VL - 34
SP - 489
EP - 494
JO - European Physical Journal B. Condensed Matter and Complex Systems
JF - European Physical Journal B. Condensed Matter and Complex Systems
IS - 4
ER -