An analysis of market shares on the Danish alcohol market using unobserved components

TY - GEN

T1 - An analysis of market shares on the Danish alcohol market using unobserved components

AU - Milhøj, Anders

PY - 2009

Y1 - 2009

N2 - The Danish alcohol market has three types of alcohol: Beer, Wine and Spirits. The market share of wine has doubled over a 25 year period, while the market share of beer has been declining and the market share of spirits is generally low and fluctuating. In recent years the trending behavior has however changed, most likely because of changes in taxation on spirits. In the paper these market shares are analyzed by unobserved components models using Proc Ucm as models with time varying trends etc. are well suited for this type of data. In Denmark the relative prices for the three types of alcohol have changed radically because of changes in the taxation and hence the relative prices provide good independent variables in regressions. In SAS version 9.2 Proc Ucm has been extended with a Randomreg statement, that allows for the varying regression coefficients. One result is that the effect of relative prices among the three types of alcohol has decreased, probably because of the increasing wealth in Denmark.

AB - The Danish alcohol market has three types of alcohol: Beer, Wine and Spirits. The market share of wine has doubled over a 25 year period, while the market share of beer has been declining and the market share of spirits is generally low and fluctuating. In recent years the trending behavior has however changed, most likely because of changes in taxation on spirits. In the paper these market shares are analyzed by unobserved components models using Proc Ucm as models with time varying trends etc. are well suited for this type of data. In Denmark the relative prices for the three types of alcohol have changed radically because of changes in the taxation and hence the relative prices provide good independent variables in regressions. In SAS version 9.2 Proc Ucm has been extended with a Randomreg statement, that allows for the varying regression coefficients. One result is that the effect of relative prices among the three types of alcohol has decreased, probably because of the increasing wealth in Denmark.

M3 - Article in proceedings

BT - SAS Global Forum 2009 Proceedings

PB - SAS Global Forum

T2 - SAS Global Forum 2009

Y2 - 22 March 2009 through 25 March 2009

ER -