A niche-based perspective on the response of Palearctic mammals to climate change and human impact

Konstantinos Giampoudakis

Abstract

The fast pace of socioeconomic growth in the past decades has left its footprint on biodiversity and all its components (genes, species and ecosystems), endangering biosphere integrity and human survival [1]. Extinction is a natural phenomenon that is part of life on Earth but is balanced by speciation [2, 3]. The large extinction events that have depleted Earth of the majority of its biota, are rare events (only five have been recorded in the last 540Mya) [4] with different natural causes acting to affect Earths global system (e.g. glaciations, asteroid collisions or eruption of super-volcanos). Contemporary extinctions though, are caused mainly by human activities, e.g. habitat fragmentation and changing climate among others, and these are occurring at an unprecedented rate and scale [5]. The “Anthropocene defaunation” is both result and a force of global change [6], with potential cascade effects at a planetary scale [7]. Quantitative assessments regarding the loss of species and alteration of natural habitat show that extinction rates and magnitude surpass background rates by far, even those of past massextinction events [8]. To predict and limit the loss of the remaining biodiversity we need to evaluate how environmental changes affect species survival, their distributions and potential to adapt. The Late Pleistocene (126ka-11.7ka; 1ka=1,000 years ago) was characterized by a peculiar extinction event, that witnessed a large and global extinction of mainly large bodied (> 45kg) mammal genera (101 out of ~150) [9]. Both the expansion of H. sapiens hunter-gatherers and large climatic changes have been hypothesized to be the main causes of this extinction event [10-17]. The main aim of this thesis is to evaluate the role of climate and associated environmental changes in the changing distribution of mammals, including Anatomically Modern Humans (AMH: H. sapiens), and its potential effects on past local/global extinctions. By treating AMHs as another megafauna species, we gain insights as to how they managed to be so successful in colonizing most parts of the globe but also how they impacted the mammalian assemblages that they encountered during their expansion across the Palaearctic. Lastly, we show how these data and methods can be used to revaluate past hypothesis on population collapses, extinction and extirpation events across large spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales. To achieve the goals of this thesis I collated a database of H. sapiens fossil material across the Palaearctic during the Late Pleistocene to Holocene transition (50ka-9ka) and a fossil database of 15 mammal species which were present in the Palearctic during that period. I also used high temporal resolution palaeoclimatic (Chapters 1&2) and palaeo-vegetation (Chapter 3) reconstructions, to characterise the climatic and habitat preference (ecological niche) of mammal species and estimate their potential distributions. Utilizing traditional niche-based concepts and macroecological tools I reconstructed the historical biogeography of this set mammal species including AMHs. My research shows that the realised climatic niche of mammal taxa, including modern humans, is changing across time (Chapters 1&2) and space (Chapter 3). Although these changes are highly individualistic, they reveal some common patterns across body mass categories and feeding guilds. An interesting finding is that the breadth of the climatic niche, or the specialization in climatic conditions a species can persist in, is not indicative of the potential for a species to survive or go extinct. A probable explanation is that the decreasing niche breadth occupied by species (Chapters 1&2) is the result of loss of populations inhabiting specific conditions across space (Chapter 3), which also contribute to a species genetic diversity, thereby affecting its ability to adapt in large scale changes at the population level. This is not the case for modern humans, who after an initial dramatic increase of their climatic niche accompanied by range expansion were not affected by a subsequent niche breadth contraction (Chapter 1), potentially due to their remarkable adaptability by technological innovations in different conditions. My results do not support direct impacts of humans on the extinction of iconic megaherbivores, i.e. the woolly rhino and the woolly mammoth, but a mild effect on large top predators by competitive exclusion. In summary, this thesis improves our understanding on species responses to anthropogenic and other disturbances and it sheds new light on the factors triggering or buffering biodiversity declines. Moreover, it stresses the importance of re-evaluating widely accepted hypothesis on species exposure to extinction in light of new data, methods, concepts and interdisciplinary approaches.

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